New research on Caribbean tourism solidly locates it within the regional shift
from "incentive-induced exports" like bananas to "service-based exports"
like data processing, offshore finance, and novel forms of mass tourism
(Mullings 2004:294; Duval 2004). Earlier studies may have made mention
of the similarities between plantation economies and tourism development,
but new models like the all-inclusive resort demonstrate a near identity of
form and structure with plantation systems: foreign dominance over ownership
and profit leaves little multiplier effect for the Caribbean islands playing
host to enclaved resorts. Agricultural exports have been in free fall since the
end of preferential trade protocols, and export manufacturing after the North
American Free Trade Agreement is in steep decline. If new service economies
seemed to offer a solution to economic and social disorder, the reaction to
the events of September 11, 2001 demonstrated the fragility of service-based
exports and, in particular, of new kinds of tourism. It took four years for international
tourism to rebound to pre-9/ 11 levels; 1 with the perceived threat of
SARS and avian flu, as well as the Iraq war and the weak U.S. dollar, official
projections of the industry's near future are "cautiously optimistic."