Basal cell carcinoma (BCC) incidence is increasing, particularly in young people, and can be associated with significant morbidity and treatment costs. To identify young individuals at risk of BCC, we assessed existing melanoma or overall skin cancer risk prediction models and built a novel risk prediction model, with a focus on indoor tanning and the melanocortin 1 receptor gene, MC1R. We evaluated logistic regression models among 759 non-Hispanic whites from a case-control study of patients seen between 2006 and 2010 in New Haven, Connecticut. In our data, the adjusted area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for a model by Han et al. (Int J Cancer. 2006;119(8):1976-1984) with 7 MC1R variants was 0.72 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.66, 0.78), while that by Smith et al. (J Clin Oncol. 2012;30(15 suppl):8574) with MC1R and indoor tanning had an AUC of 0.69 (95% CI: 0.63, 0.75). Our base model had greater predictive ability than existing models and was significantly improved when we added ever-indoor tanning, burns from indoor tanning, and MC1R (AUC = 0.77, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.81). Our early-onset BCC risk prediction model incorporating MC1R and indoor tanning extends the work of other skin cancer risk prediction models, emphasizes the value of both genotype and indoor tanning in skin cancer risk prediction in young people, and should be validated with an independent cohort.
