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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (7 results)

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Research Theses and Dissertations (2001)

Resource scientists have recently shown virtually unqualified support for managing fisheries with marine reserves, signifying a new resource management paradigm that recognizes the importance of spatial processes in both untouched and exploited systems. Biologists promoting reserves have based such support on simplifying assumptions about harvester behavior. This thesis shows that these naive assumptions about the spatial distribution of fishing effort before and after reserve creation severely bias predicted outcomes, generally overstating the beneficial effects of reserves.

This thesis presents a fully integrated, spatial bioeconomic model of the northern California red sea urchin fishery. The model is the first attempt to marry a spatially explicit metapopulation model of a fishery with an empirical economic model of harvester behavior. The biological model is calibrated with parameters representing best available knowledge of natality, growth, mortality, and· oceanographic dispersal mechanisms. The model of spatial behavior is estimated using a large panel data set of urchin harvester decisions, which are recorded in logbooks and on landings tickets.

The economic model tracks repeated decisions that take place on different time and spatial scales. Harvesters make daily decisions about whether to fish and where to fish, conditioned on home ports. On longer time scales, harvesters select a home port, choose between northern and southern California regions, and decide whether to drop out of the fishery. Combining a Random Utility Model with Seemingly Unrelated Regressions, the model predicts the aggregate supply response of fishing effort and the spatial allocation of effort as a function of relative economic payoffs. The economic model is integrated with the biological model to endogenize effort, harvest, biomass levels, and reproductive performance of the population.

The integrated model is used to explore the efficacy of marine reserve formation under realistic assumptions about the determinants of total effort and its spatial distribution. Contrary to the dominant biological modeling conclusions based on naive assumptions, realistic behavioral assumptions lead mostly to pessimistic conclusions about the potential of marine reserves. The thesis results ultimately cast doubt on many of the arguments made by those who advocate closures to enhance fisheries.

    Cover page: Spatial Behavior, Marine Reserves, and the Northern California Red Sea Urchin Fishery
    • Article
    • Peer Reviewed
    UC Davis Previously Published Works (2019)
    Coupled human and natural systems (CHANS) are complex, dynamic, interconnected systems with feedback across social and environmental dimensions. This feedback leads to formidable challenges for causal inference. Two significant challenges involve assumptions about excludability and the absence of interference. These two assumptions have been largely unexplored in the CHANS literature, but when either is violated, causal inferences from observable data are difficult to interpret. To explore their plausibility, structural knowledge of the system is requisite, as is an explicit recognition that most causal variables in CHANS affect a coupled pairing of environmental and human elements. In a large CHANS literature that evaluates marine protected areas, nearly 200 studies attempt to make causal claims, but few address the excludability assumption. To examine the relevance of interference in CHANS, we develop a stylized simulation of a marine CHANS with shocks that can represent policy interventions, ecological disturbances, and technological disasters. Human and capital mobility in CHANS is both a cause of interference, which biases inferences about causal effects, and a moderator of the causal effects themselves. No perfect solutions exist for satisfying excludability and interference assumptions in CHANS. To elucidate causal relationships in CHANS, multiple approaches will be needed for a given causal question, with the aim of identifying sources of bias in each approach and then triangulating on credible inferences. Within CHANS research, and sustainability science more generally, the path to accumulating an evidence base on causal relationships requires skills and knowledge from many disciplines and effective academic-practitioner collaborations.
      Cover page: Causal inference in coupled human and natural systems
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      UC Lab Fees Research Program (LFRP) Funded Publications (2015)
      Over the past two decades, comparative sequence analysis using codon-substitution models has been honed into a powerful and popular approach for detecting signatures of natural selection from molecular data. A substantial body of work has focused on developing a class of “branch-site” models which permit selective pressures on sequences, quantified by the ω ratio, to vary among both codon sites and individual branches in the phylogeny. We develop and present a method in this class, adaptive branch-site random effects likelihood (aBSREL), whose key innovation is variable parametric complexity chosen with an information theoretic criterion. By applying models of different complexity to different branches in the phylogeny, aBSREL delivers statistical performance matching or exceeding best-in-class existing approaches, while running an order of magnitude faster. Based on simulated data analysis, we offer guidelines for what extent and strength of diversifying positive selection can be detected reliably and suggest that there is a natural limit on the optimal parametric complexity for “branch-site” models. An aBSREL analysis of 8,893 Euteleostomes gene alignments demonstrates that over 80% of branches in typical gene phylogenies can be adequately modeled with a single ω ratio model, that is, current models are unnecessarily complicated. However, there are a relatively small number of key branches, whose identities are derived from the data using a model selection procedure, for which it is essential to accurately model evolutionary complexity.
        Cover page: Less Is More: An Adaptive Branch-Site Random Effects Model for Efficient Detection of Episodic Diversifying Selection
        • Article
        • Peer Reviewed
        UC Lab Fees Research Program (LFRP) Funded Publications (2014)
        Relaxation of selective strength, manifested as a reduction in the efficiency or intensity of natural selection, can drive evolutionary innovation and presage lineage extinction or loss of function. Mechanisms through which selection can be relaxed range from the removal of an existing selective constraint to a reduction in effective population size. Standard methods for estimating the strength and extent of purifying or positive selection from molecular sequence data are not suitable for detecting relaxed selection, because they lack power and can mistake an increase in the intensity of positive selection for relaxation of both purifying and positive selection. Here, we present a general hypothesis testing framework (RELAX) for detecting relaxed selection in a codon-based phylogenetic framework. Given two subsets of branches in a phylogeny, RELAX can determine whether selective strength was relaxed or intensified in one of these subsets relative to the other. We establish the validity of our test via simulations and show that it can distinguish between increased positive selection and a relaxation of selective strength. We also demonstrate the power of RELAX in a variety of biological scenarios where relaxation of selection has been hypothesized or demonstrated previously. We find that obligate and facultative γ-proteobacteria endosymbionts of insects are under relaxed selection compared with their free-living relatives and obligate endosymbionts are under relaxed selection compared with facultative endosymbionts. Selective strength is also relaxed in asexual Daphnia pulex lineages, compared with sexual lineages. Endogenous, nonfunctional, bornavirus-like elements are found to be under relaxed selection compared with exogenous Borna viruses. Finally, selection on the short-wavelength sensitive, SWS1, opsin genes in echolocating and nonecholocating bats is relaxed only in lineages in which this gene underwent pseudogenization; however, selection on the functional medium/long-wavelength sensitive opsin, M/LWS1, is found to be relaxed in all echolocating bats compared with nonecholocating bats.
          Cover page: RELAX: Detecting Relaxed Selection in a Phylogenetic Framework
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          • Peer Reviewed
          UC Lab Fees Research Program (LFRP) Funded Publications (2014)
          Herpesviruses have been infecting and codiverging with their vertebrate hosts for hundreds of millions of years. The primate simplex viruses exemplify this pattern of virus–host codivergence, at a minimum, as far back as the most recent common ancestor of New World monkeys, Old World monkeys, and apes. Humans are the only primate species known to be infected with two distinct herpes simplex viruses: HSV-1 and HSV-2. Human herpes simplex viruses are ubiquitous, with over two-thirds of the human population infected by at least one virus. Here, we investigated whether the additional human simplex virus is the result of ancient viral lineage duplication or cross-species transmission. We found that standard phylogenetic models of nucleotide substitution are inadequate for distinguishing among these competing hypotheses; the extent of synonymous substitutions causes a substantial underestimation of the lengths of some of the branches in the phylogeny, consistent with observations in other viruses (e.g., avian influenza, Ebola, and coronaviruses). To more accurately estimate ancient viral divergence times, we applied a branch-site random effects likelihood model of molecular evolution that allows the strength of natural selection to vary across both the viral phylogeny and the gene alignment. This selection-informed model favored a scenario in which HSV-1 is the result of ancient codivergence and HSV-2 arose from a cross-species transmission event from the ancestor of modern chimpanzees to an extinct Homo precursor of modern humans, around 1.6 Ma. These results provide a new framework for understanding human herpes simplex virus evolution and demonstrate the importance of using selection-informed models of sequence evolution when investigating viral origin hypotheses.
            Cover page: Evolutionary Origins of Human Herpes Simplex Viruses 1 and 2
            • Article
            • Peer Reviewed
            UC Lab Fees Research Program (LFRP) Funded Publications (2015)
            We present BUSTED, a new approach to identifying gene-wide evidence of episodic positive selection, where the non-synonymous substitution rate is transiently greater than the synonymous rate. BUSTED can be used either on an entire phylogeny (without requiring an a priori hypothesis regarding which branches are under positive selection) or on a pre-specified subset of foreground lineages (if a suitable a priori hypothesis is available). Selection is modeled as varying stochastically over branches and sites, and we propose a computationally inexpensive evidence metric for identifying sites subject to episodic positive selection on any foreground branches. We compare BUSTED with existing models on simulated and empirical data. An implementation is available on www.datamonkey.org/busted, with a widget allowing the interactive specification of foreground branches.
              Cover page: Gene-Wide Identification of Episodic Selection
              • Article
              • Peer Reviewed
              UC San Diego Previously Published Works (2017)
              Venezuelan equine encephalitis (VEE) complex alphaviruses are important re-emerging arboviruses that cause life-threatening disease in equids during epizootics as well as spillover human infections. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of VEE complex alphaviruses by sequencing the genomes of 94 strains and performing phylogenetic analyses of 130 isolates using complete open reading frames for the nonstructural and structural polyproteins. Our analyses confirmed purifying selection as a major mechanism influencing the evolution of these viruses as well as a confounding factor in molecular clock dating of ancestors. Times to most recent common ancestors (tMRCAs) could be robustly estimated only for the more recently diverged subtypes; the tMRCA of the ID/IAB/IC/II and IE clades of VEE virus (VEEV) were estimated at ca. 149-973 years ago. Evolution of the IE subtype has been characterized by a significant evolutionary shift from the rest of the VEEV complex, with an increase in structural protein substitutions that are unique to this group, possibly reflecting adaptation to its unique enzootic mosquito vector Culex (Melanoconion) taeniopus. Our inferred tree topologies suggest that VEEV is maintained primarily in situ, with only occasional spread to neighboring countries, probably reflecting the limited mobility of rodent hosts and mosquito vectors.
                Cover page: Evolution and spread of Venezuelan equine encephalitis complex alphavirus in the Americas
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