This paper examines India’s federal system in the context of prospects for India’s future economic growth and development. After a brief review of India’s recent policy reforms and economic development outcomes, and of the country’s federal institutions, the analysis focuses on the major issues with respect to India’s federal system in terms of their developmental consequences. We examine the impacts of tax assignments, expenditure authority and the intergovernmental transfer system on the following aspects of India’s economy and economic performance: the quality of governance and government expenditure, the efficiency of the tax system, the fiscal health of different tiers of government, and the impacts on growth and on regional inequality. In each case, we discuss recent and possible policy reforms. We make comparisons with China’s federal system where this is instructive for analyzing the Indian case. Finally, we provide a discussion of potential reforms of aspects of India’s federal institutions.

This paper assesses India’s current fiscal situation, its likely future evolution, and impacts on the economy. We examine possible reforms of macroeconomic policy (including fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy) and broader institutional reforms that will bear on the macroeconomic situation. We also consider the political feasibility of possible reforms. We examine both medium and longer run scenarios, and fiscal sustainability and adjustment going beyond conventional government budget deficits, to include off-budget liabilities, both actual and contingent. We conclude with our assessment of reforms focused on improving the fisc.

This paper discusses some puzzles in the contemporary macroeconomic scene in India, from the perspective of public finance and economic development. These include a fiscal deficit higher than it was during the 1991 crisis, but without a large current account deficit or rise in inflation or interest rates, a rising inflow of external capital, accompanied by the RBI’s sterilizing these inflows and accumulating large reserves, even in the face of low inflation. We offer a critique of some previous analyses, and some models that are suggestive of how real and monetary factors might be integrated in providing a firmer grounding for the policy debates current in India.

This paper discusses some puzzles in the contemporary macroeconomic scene in India, from the perspective of public finance and economic development. These include a fiscal deficit higher than it was during the 1991 crisis, but without a large current account deficit or rise in inflation or interest rates, a rising inflow of external capital, accompanied by the RBI’s sterilizing these inflows and accumulating large reserves, even in the face of low inflation. We offer a critique of some previous analyses, and some models that are suggestive of how real and monetary factors might be integrated in providing a firmer grounding for the policy debates current in India.

This paper assesses India’s current fiscal situation, its likely future evolution, and impacts on the economy. We examine possible reforms of macroeconomic policy (including fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policy) and broader institutional reforms that will bear on the macroeconomic situation. We also consider the political feasibility of possible reforms. We examine both medium and longer run scenarios, and fiscal sustainability and adjustment going beyond conventional government budget deficits, to include off-budget liabilities, both actual and contingent. We conclude with our assessment of reforms focused on improving the fisc.