We propose a probabilistic enhancement of standard kernel Support Vector Machines for binary classification, in order to address the case when, along with given data sets, a description of uncertainty (e.g., error bounds) may be available on each datum. In the present paper, we specifically consider Gaussian distributions to model uncertainty. Thereby, our data consist of pairs $(x_i,\Sigma_i)$, $i\in\{1,\ldots,N\}$, along with an indicator $y_i\in\{-1,1\}$ to declare membership in one of two categories for each pair. These pairs may be viewed to represent the mean and covariance, respectively, of random vectors $\xi_i$ taking values in a suitable linear space (typically $\mathbb R^n$). Thus, our setting may also be viewed as a modification of Support Vector Machines to classify distributions, albeit, at present, only Gaussian ones. We outline the formalism that allows computing suitable classifiers via a natural modification of the standard "kernel trick." The main contribution of this work is to point out a suitable kernel function for applying Support Vector techniques to the setting of uncertain data for which a detailed uncertainty description is also available (herein, "Gaussian points").

Quantifying the systemic risk and fragility of financial systems is of vital importance in analyzing market efficiency, deciding on portfolio allocation, and containing financial contagions. At a high level, financial systems may be represented as weighted graphs that characterize the complex web of interacting agents and information flow (for example, debt, stock returns, and shareholder ownership). Such a representation often turns out to provide keen insights. We show that fragility is a system-level characteristic of "business-as-usual" market behavior and that financial crashes are invariably preceded by system-level changes in robustness. This was done by leveraging previous work, which suggests that Ricci curvature, a key geometric feature of a given network, is negatively correlated to increases in network fragility. To illustrate this insight, we examine daily returns from a set of stocks comprising the Standard and Poor's 500 (S&P 500) over a 15-year span to highlight the fact that corresponding changes in Ricci curvature constitute a financial "crash hallmark." This work lays the foundation of understanding how to design (banking) systems and policy regulations in a manner that can combat financial instabilities exposed during the 2007-2008 crisis.