Counterfactual thinking is the consideration of how things
could have turned out differently, usually taking the form of
counterfactual conditionals. This experiment examined the
psychological mechanisms that transform counterfactuals into
deontic guidance rules for the future. We examined how
counterfactual thinking translates into deontic guidance rules
by asking participants to infer these deontic conclusions from
the counterfactual premises. Participants were presented with
a vignette and a counterfactual conditional, and assigned to
either a control condition or a suppression condition in which
they were additionally presented with conflicting normative
rules. The presence of conflicting norms reduced the
likelihood of positive deontic conclusions being endorsed and
increased the likelihood of negative deontic conclusions being
endorsed. Future intentionality and regret intensity ratings
were reduced in the suppression condition. The same
conditions that affect normative inference also affect regret
and future planning, suggesting similar cognitive mechanisms
underlie these processes.