Variance of the outcomes associated with an option often
provides a measure of the riskiness of that option. Hence, it is
important for organisms are able to detect any sudden changes
in outcome variance. In Experiment 1, we presented people
with graphs of share price time series or water level time
series. In half the graphs, variance (financial or flooding risk)
changed at some point. People were better at detecting
increases than decreases in risk - maybe because it is more
important to detect increases in danger than decreases in it.
However, in Experiment 2, people were still better at
detecting increases than decreases in variance even when
those changes did not reflect altered levels of risk. Our
findings may reflect the fact that the actual change in variance
exceeds the change needed to identify a regime change in
variance by a larger amount for upward than for downward
changes.