Diarrhea remains a leading cause of death in children in developing countries, including Nicaragua, but little is known about patterns of diarrhea occurrence in Central America over long periods of time. The purpose of this study was to determine the incidence, risk factors, long-term trends, and seasonality of diarrhea in children age 2 to 14 years in Managua, Nicaragua. From 2011 to 2019, we examined episodes of diarrhea among 6,485 children who participated in a prospective cohort study and presented for care in a primary care facility. We performed a longitudinal analysis considering time-varying variables and the intra-subject correlation of outcomes. In addition, we analyzed the weekly incidence of diarrhea, applying seasonal trend decomposition to extract secular and seasonal patterns. The overall incidence rate of diarrhea was 133.4 episodes per 1,000 person-years (95% CI, 128.3-138.7). We observed a slight increase in the incidence of diarrhea from 2011 to 2019. Younger age was the strongest predictor of the risk of diarrhea, and incidence increased with every additional hour without running water in the household per day. Diarrhea incidence in Managua was seasonal, with high peaks each year between May and July. Despite reductions in childhood mortality since 1990 in Nicaragua, diarrheal morbidity remains a major problem in Managua.

In 2015, a Zika epidemic in Brazil began spreading throughout the Americas. Zika virus (ZIKV) entered Managua, Nicaragua, in January 2016 and caused an epidemic that peaked in July-September 2016. ZIKV seropositivity was estimated among participants of pediatric (n = 3,740) and household (n = 2,147) cohort studies, including an adult-only subset from the household cohort (n = 1,074), in Managua. Seropositivity was based on a highly sensitive and specific assay, the Zika NS1 blockade-of-binding ELISA, which can be used in dengue-endemic populations. Overall seropositivity for the pediatric (ages 2-14), household (ages 2-80), and adult (ages 15-80) cohorts was 36, 46, and 56%, respectively. Trend, risk factor, and contour mapping analyses demonstrated that ZIKV seroprevalence increased nonlinearly with age and that body surface area was statistically associated with increasing seroprevalence in children. ZIKV seropositivity was higher in females than in males across almost all ages, with adjusted prevalence ratios in children and adults of 1.11 (95% CI: 1.02-1.21) and 1.14 (95% CI: 1.01-1.28), respectively. No household-level risk factors were statistically significant in multivariate analyses. A spatial analysis revealed a 10-15% difference in the risk of ZIKV infections across our 3-km-wide study site, suggesting that ZIKV infection risk varies at small spatial scales. To our knowledge, this is the largest ZIKV seroprevalence study reported in the Americas, and the only one in Central America and in children to date. It reveals a high level of immunity against ZIKV in Managua as a result of the 2016 epidemic, making a second large Zika epidemic unlikely in the near future.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that is responsible for recent explosive epidemics in the Americas. Notably, ZIKV infection during pregnancy has been found to cause congenital birth defects, including microcephaly, and ZIKV has been associated with Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults. Diagnosis and surveillance of Zika in the Americas have been challenging due to similar clinical manifestations and extensive antibody cross-reactivity with endemic flaviviral diseases, such as dengue. We evaluated four serological and two reverse transcription-PCR (RT-PCR) methods in acute-phase (mean day, 1.8), early-convalescent-phase (mean day, 16.7), and late-convalescent-phase (mean, ~7 months) samples from the same individuals in a long-term pediatric cohort study in Nicaragua. Well-characterized samples from 301 cases of Zika, dengue, or non-Zika, nondengue febrile illnesses were tested. Compared to a composite reference, an in-house IgM antibody capture enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (MAC-ELISA) and the NIAID-Biodefense and Emerging Infections (BEI) MAC-ELISA measuring IgM yielded sensitivities of 94.5% and 70.1% and specificities of 85.6% and 82.8%, respectively. The NS1 blockade-of-binding ELISA measuring anti-ZIKV NS1 antibody levels yielded sensitivities of 85.0% and 96.5% and specificities of 91.4% and 92.6% at early and late convalescence, respectively. An inhibition ELISA detecting total anti-ZIKV antibodies had sensitivity and specificity values of 68.3% and 58.3% for diagnosis and 94.0% and 98.6% for measuring annual infection incidence. Finally, the ZCD and Trioplex real-time RT-PCR assays detecting Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses both yielded a sensitivity of 96.1% and specificity of 100%. Together, these assays resolve the urgent need for diagnostic and surveillance tools for countries affected by Zika virus infections.

Zika virus (ZIKV) is a mosquito-borne flavivirus that emerged recently as a global health threat, causing a pandemic in the Americas. ZIKV infection mostly causes mild disease, but is linked to devastating congenital birth defects and Guillain-Barré syndrome in adults. The high level of cross-reactivity among flaviviruses and their cocirculation has complicated serological approaches to differentially detect ZIKV and dengue virus (DENV) infections, accentuating the urgent need for a specific and sensitive serological test. We previously generated a ZIKV nonstructural protein 1 (NS1)-specific human monoclonal antibody, which we used to develop an NS1-based competition ELISA. Well-characterized samples from RT-PCR-confirmed patients with Zika and individuals exposed to other flavivirus infections or vaccination were used in a comprehensive analysis to determine the sensitivity and specificity of the NS1 blockade-of-binding (BOB) assay, which was established in laboratories in five countries (Nicaragua, Brazil, Italy, United Kingdom, and Switzerland). Of 158 sera/plasma from RT-PCR-confirmed ZIKV infections, 145 (91.8%) yielded greater than 50% inhibition. Of 171 patients with primary or secondary DENV infections, 152 (88.9%) scored negative. When the control group was extended to patients infected by other flaviviruses, other viruses, or healthy donors (n = 540), the specificity was 95.9%. We also analyzed longitudinal samples from DENV-immune and DENV-naive ZIKV infections and found inhibition was achieved within 10 d postonset of illness and maintained over time. Thus, the Zika NS1 BOB assay is sensitive, specific, robust, simple, low-cost, and accessible, and can detect recent and past ZIKV infections for surveillance, seroprevalence studies, and intervention trials.

Zika virus (ZIKV) infection recently caused major epidemics in the Americas and is linked to congenital birth defects and Guillain-Barré Syndrome. A pilot study of ZIKV infection in Nicaraguan households was conducted from August 31 to October 21, 2016, in Managua, Nicaragua. We enrolled 33 laboratory-confirmed Zika index cases and their household members (109 contacts) and followed them on days 3-4, 6-7, 9-10, and 21, collecting serum/plasma, urine, and saliva specimens along with clinical, demographic, and socio-economic status information. Collected samples were processed by rRT-PCR to determine viral load (VL) and duration of detectable ZIKV RNA in human bodily fluids. At enrollment, 11 (10%) contacts were ZIKV rRT-PCR-positive and 23 (21%) were positive by IgM antibodies; 3 incident cases were detected during the study period. Twenty of 33 (61%) index households had contacts with ZIKV infection, with an average of 1.9 (range 1-6) positive contacts per household, and in 60% of these households, ≥50% of the members were positive for ZIKV infection. Analysis of clinical information allowed us to estimate the symptomatic to asymptomatic (S:A) ratio of 14:23 (1:1.6) among the contacts, finding 62% of the infections to be asymptomatic. The maximum number of days during which ZIKV RNA was detected was 7 days post-symptom onset in saliva and serum/plasma and 22 days in urine. Overall, VL levels in serum/plasma, saliva, and urine specimens were comparable, with means of 5.6, 5.3 and 4.5 log10 copies/ml respectively, with serum attaining the highest VL peak at 8.1 log10 copies/ml. Detecting ZIKV RNA in saliva over a similar time-period and level as in serum/plasma indicates that saliva could potentially serve as a more accessible diagnostic sample. Finding the majority of infections to be asymptomatic emphasizes the importance of silent ZIKV transmission and helps inform public health interventions in the region and globally.