- Jiang, Benben;
- Gent, William E;
- Mohr, Fabian;
- Das, Supratim;
- Berliner, Marc D;
- Forsuelo, Michael;
- Zhao, Hongbo;
- Attia, Peter M;
- Grover, Aditya;
- Herring, Patrick K;
- Bazant, Martin Z;
- Harris, Stephen J;
- Ermon, Stefano;
- Chueh, William C;
- Braatz, Richard D
Advancing lithium-ion battery technology requires the optimization of cycling protocols. A new data-driven methodology is demonstrated for rapid, accurate prediction of the cycle life obtained by new cycling protocols using a single test lasting only 3 cycles, enabling rapid exploration of cycling protocol design spaces with orders of magnitude reduction in testing time. We achieve this by combining lifetime early prediction with a hierarchical Bayesian model (HBM) to rapidly predict performance distributions without the need for extensive repetitive testing. The methodology is applied to a comprehensive dataset of lithium-iron-phosphate/graphite comprising 29 different fast-charging protocols. HBM alone provides high protocol-lifetime prediction performance, with 6.5% of overall test average percent error, after cycling only one battery to failure. By combining HBM with a battery lifetime prediction model, we achieve a test error of 8.8% using a single 3-cycle test. In addition, the generalizability of the HBM approach is demonstrated for lithium-manganese-cobalt-oxide/graphite cells.