California Policy Lab

California emergency departments (EDs) treated about 143,000 people experiencing homelessness in 2019, according to hospital discharge records. Almost half of homeless patients visited the ED four or more times in the year.

Medi-Cal covered 70 percent of ED visits by homeless patients, underscoring the importance of the CalAIM program, which provides added Medi-Cal benefits, such as housing supports and case management.

Linking discharge data with homeless assistance program data can offer insights into how people engage with EDs and homeless services across the state, and throughout the year, as well as help evaluate programs and public investments.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

CalFresh benefits can help college students make ends meet while attending college, but not all eligible students apply. One contributing factor may be that students are not aware they are eligible. Therefore, outreach efforts informing them of their eligibility could help increase take-up rates. To test this, we designed and conducted two experiments that leveraged an expansion in CalFresh eligibility for students that went into effect in early 2021. In response to the pandemic, Congress permitted a temporary expansion to college student eligibility for SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), or CalFresh as it is known in California. The expansion went into effect in January 2021 and will last through the end of the federal public health emergency. The California Department of Social Services (CDSS) and the California Student Aid Commission (CSAC) partnered with The People Lab (TPL) and the California Policy Lab (CPL) on two randomized experiments to evaluate whether outreach about this policy change could increase the number of students who applied for and eventually enrolled in CalFresh. One experiment, conducted in February and March 2021, tested the impact of email outreach. The second, conducted in June 2021, tested the relative effectiveness of different messages and modes of communication on the same group of students who were newly eligible. This brief reports the results of the second experiment. In a randomized experiment with 285,325 Californian college students, we found that the method of communication had a large impact on application rates: 2.9% of students who were only sent an email submitted an application for CalFresh compared to 4.9% of students who were sent an email and a postcard — a 69% increase. Simplifying the content of the communication also yielded a small increase in application rates, but other variations in message content had no meaningful effect. During the six weeks following outreach, 10,000 contacted students applied for CalFresh.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

CalFresh benefits can help college students make ends meet while attending college, but not all eligible students apply. One contributing factor may be that students are not aware they are eligible. Therefore, outreach efforts informing them of their eligibility could help increase take-up rates. To test this, we designed and conducted two experiments that leveraged an expansion in CalFresh eligibility for students that went into effect in early 2021. In response to the pandemic, Congress permitted a temporary expansion to college student eligibility for SNAP (Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program), or CalFresh as it is known in California. The expansion went into effect in January 2021 and will last through the end of the federal public health emergency. The California Department of Social Services (CDSS) and the California Student Aid Commission (CSAC) partnered with The People Lab (TPL) and the California Policy Lab (CPL) on two randomized experiments to evaluate whether outreach about this policy change could increase the number of students who applied for and eventually enrolled in CalFresh. One experiment, conducted in February and March 2021, tested the impact of email outreach. The second, conducted in June 2021, tested the relative effectiveness of different messages and modes of communication on the same group of students who were newly eligible. This brief reports the results of the first experiment.1 In a randomized experiment with 285,731 California college students who were eligible under the temporary expansion and were not already receiving CalFresh in January 2021, we found that an email from CSAC led roughly 2–3% of recipients to apply for benefits through GetCalFresh.org within a week of receiving the email. The increase in applications translated into an increase in CalFresh enrollment of 1.5 to 2.5 percentage points. Effects were even larger for students who received a second follow-up email.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

In Los Angeles, 45,021 people experiencing unsheltered homelessness received street outreach services between July 1, 2019 and June 30, 2020. Supporting and housing unsheltered residents is an urgent priority in Los Angeles, and it is imperative to better understand the challenges that individuals are facing. Questions persist about the size and unique needs of the group of individuals who are unsheltered and diagnosed with a serious mental illness (SMI). This is because unsheltered individuals experiencing serious mental illness, and particularly those individuals with a diagnosis of a psychotic spectrum disorder (“PSD”), may experience symptoms that could cause or contribute to losing housing and that could lengthen the duration of homelessness. This group often needs intensive, specialized, and coordinated care in order to exit homelessness. To better understand the prevalence of psychotic spectrum disorders (“PSD”) among those who are unsheltered, the California Policy Lab (CPL) linked homeless outreach service records found in the Los Angeles Homeless Services Authority’s (LAHSA) Homeless Management Information System (HMIS) to service records at the LA County Department of Mental Health (DMH) and the LA County Department of Health Services (DHS). We used the linked data to estimate the number of people who are enrolled in a street outreach program and who had a service visit for serious mental illness (“SMI”) in the five years prior to their street outreach enrollment. We then stratified this group into two distinct groups: those with service visits with a diagnosis of PSD and those with service visits with a diagnosis of a serious mental illness without psychotic symptoms (“Other SMI”). We analyzed these data to show how many people in these groups were enrolled in interim or permanent housing within one year of their enrollment in street outreach services, and we break down interim and permanent housing enrollments by race and ethnicity. Our analysis also shows how many street outreach participants did not have service records for PSD or Other SMI within the five years prior to enrolling in street outreach.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

In this study, we assessed equity in criminal record relief eligibility in California, one of the first states to pass automatic record relief legislation. Our analysis included three components. First, using criminal history data from the California Department of Justice (CA DOJ), we assessed the share of people with criminal records who are eligible for automatic relief under current laws, and how this eligibility varied across racial and ethnic groups. Second, we evaluated two hypothetical reforms in how eligibility is determined that might alter equity across racial and ethnic groups: (a) relief for discretionary cases, and (b) a sunset rule that would automatically grant relief for convictions more than 7 years old. Finally, we estimated how each of these hypothetical reforms would alter population-level disparities in conviction records statewide.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278

Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, fewer people have been moving into California from other states and more have been leaving. At the end of September 2021, entrances to California were 8% lower than at the end of March 2020.1 Exits, following a dip in the first half of 2020, stood 12% higher at the end of September 2021 than at the end of March 2020 — representing a return to a steady pre-pandemic rate of increase of approximately 4% per year since 2016. Net domestic migration, defined as the difference between entrances and exits, went from 40,000 net exits per quarter prior to the pandemic to 80,000 afterward. This brief uses data through the end of September 2021. These trends are present throughout the state. Since the end of March 2020, new entrances to the state have dropped in 40 of 58 California counties, and when Californians move, they are slightly more likely to leave the state than they were before the pandemic began (true for nearly every county). But the Bay Area stands out, for several reasons. Since the end of March 2020, new entrances to Bay Area counties have dropped more quickly than in other parts of the state. Before the pandemic, San Francisco County was the only net receiver of population from other US states. Today, all California counties lose population to domestic migration. In addition, whereas in every other economic region the move rate fell since the pandemic began, Bay Area residents moved (to any destination) at higher levels (up 0.3 percentage points, to 4.2%), driving a 21% increase in Bay Area exits.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

At the start of the COVID-19 pandemic, the federal government stopped requiring payment on most federal student loans. This “payment pause” was originally set to expire in September 2020, but after several extensions it is set to expire May 1, 2022. Using anonymized credit records, we describe who was affected by the payment pause, how it impacted their finances, and what might happen when the payment pause ends. The payment pause affected the vast majority of student loan borrowers, and their average overall debt obligations fell by $210 (equivalent to one-third of their installment loan payments). The payment pause improved credit standing among affected borrowers. Delinquency rates dropped from 7% to 0%, and credit scores increased by an average of nearly 30 points, concentrated especially among borrowers with lower starting credit scores. We predict that three in ten borrowers — or nearly 8 million people — are at high risk of missing payments when the payment pause ends. These borrowers owe nearly $280 billion in paused student loans. Though we cannot directly observe the racial identity of these borrowers, they are more likely to live in neighborhoods with a high proportion of Black residents than other paused borrowers. 

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

Food insecurity is widespread among college students in the United States. CalFresh food benefits, known federally as the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program, or SNAP, can help students in California pay for food, but may not reach all eligible students. CalFresh enrollment rates among students have been difficult to estimate due to incomplete data on California students’ eligibility for and enrollment in the CalFresh program.1 To overcome these issues, the California Policy Lab (CPL) partnered with the California Community College system (CCC), the University of California Office of the President (UCOP), the California Department of Social Services (CDSS), and the California Student Aid Commission (CSAC) to build a linked database of student-level administrative data on college enrollment, financial aid, and CalFresh participation. 

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

The Make-it-Right (MIR) restorative justice conferencing program serves youth ages 13 to 17 who would have otherwise faced relatively serious felony charges (e.g., burglary, assault, unlawful taking of a vehicle). Following extensive preparation, participating youth meet with the people they have harmed or a surrogate, accept responsibility for the impact of their actions, and come to an agreement for how the youth can repair to the greatest extent possible the harm they caused. If the youth follow through with the repair actions outlined in the agreement, charges against them are never filed. If they do not, they face traditional juvenile felony prosecution. In this study, eligible youth were randomly assigned to participate in MIR or to a control group in which they faced felony prosecution. We find that youth given the opportunity to participate in MIR had a 19-percentage-point lower likelihood of a rearrest within six months, a 44 percent reduction relative to the control group of youth who were prosecuted in the traditional juvenile justice system. The reduction in justice-system contact persists even four years after the offer of participation, providing strong evidence that restorative justice community conferencing can reduce subsequent justice-system involvement among youth charged with relatively serious offenses and can be an effective alternative to traditional prosecution.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278.

Every year, over a million Californians receive workforce support and training from state and federally funded programs. In an efort to learn more about the impact of these programs and to improve them, an inter-agency partnership led by the California Workforce Development Board (CWDB) created Cross-System Analytics and Assessment for Learning and Skills Attainment (CAAL-Skills). The CAALSkills partnership facilitates data-sharing across seven California state agencies that deliver thirteen workforce programs. Bringing this data together signifcantly improves the state’s ability to observe who is enrolled in these programs and makes it possible, for the frst time, to measure the impacts these programs have on participants’ employment and earnings.

This policy brief highlights fndings from the frst causal study to estimate the impacts of ten training programs that report to CAAL-Skills, performed by the California Policy Lab at the University of California. The causal impact measures the efect of receiving training on participants’ employment and earnings, relative to what those same workers would have experienced without training. Training participants are compared to matched individuals with similar demographic and earnings histories who did not receive training, and the impact of training is measured as the diference between the trainees’ outcomes and their matched “twins.” This strategy successfully identifes training impacts for most of the training programs. However, there are a few programs — particularly those that serve distinctive populations with specifc employment barriers, such as Vocational Rehabilitation programs — for which the strategy is not successful at identifying valid comparisons. Of the ten programs that provide training, there was evidence on causal impact estimates available for six programs, suggestive evidence on impacts for two programs, and no evidence available for two programs. Full methodological details and fndings, along with improved research options for all programs and the CAAL-Skills partnership are detailed in the report.

This work has been supported, in part, by the University of California Multicampus Research Programs and Initiatives grants MRP-19-600774 and M21PR3278