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Longitudinal trends in prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and survival of patients from two Shanghai city districts: a retrospective population-based cohort study, 2000-2009.



Prostate cancer is the fifth most common cancer affecting men of all ages in China, but robust surveillance data on its occurrence and outcome is lacking. The specific objective of this retrospective study was to analyze the longitudinal trends of prostate cancer incidence, mortality, and survival in Shanghai from 2000 to 2009.


A retrospective population-based cohort study was performed using data from a central district (Putuo) and a suburban district (Jiading) of Shanghai. Records of all prostate cancer cases reported to the Shanghai Cancer Registry from 2000 to 2009 for the two districts were reviewed. Prostate cancer outcomes were ascertained by matching cases with individual mortality data (up to 2010) from the National Death Register. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to analyze factors associated with prostate cancer survival.


A total of 1022 prostate cancer cases were diagnosed from 2000 to 2009. The average age of patients was 75 years. A rapid increase in incidence occurred during the study period. Compared with the year 2000, 2009 incidence was 3.28 times higher in Putuo and 5.33 times higher in Jiading. Prostate cancer mortality declined from 4.45 per 105 individuals per year in 2000 to 1.94 per 105 in 2009 in Putuo and from 5.45 per 105 to 3.5 per 105 in Jiading during the same period. One-year and 5-year prostate cancer survival rates were 95% and 56% in Putuo, and 88% and 51% in Jiading, respectively. Staging of disease, Karnofsky Performance Scale Index, and selection of chemotherapy were three independent factors influencing the survival of prostate cancer patients.


The prostate cancer incidence increased rapidly from 2000 to 2009, and prostate cancer survival rates decreased in urban and suburban Chinese populations. Early detection and prompt prostate cancer treatment is important for improving health and for increasing survival rates of the Shanghai male population.

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