Skip to main content
eScholarship
Open Access Publications from the University of California

A queueing model for chronic recurrent conditions under panel observation

  • Author(s): Crespi, Catherine M
  • Cumberland, W G
  • Blower, S
  • et al.
Abstract

In many chronic conditions, subjects alternate between an active and an inactive state, and sojourns into the active state may involve multiple lesions, infections, or other recurrences with different times of onset and resolution. We present a biologically interpretable model of such chronic recurrent conditions based on a queueing process. The model has a birth-death process describing recurrences and a semi-Markov process describing the alternation between active and inactive states, and can be fit to panel data that provide only a binary assessment of the active or inactive state at a series of discrete time points using a hidden Markov approach. We accommodate individual heterogeneity and covariates using a random effects model, and simulate the posterior distribution of unknowns using a Markov chain Monte Carlo algorithm. Application to a clinical trial of genital herpes shows how the method can characterize the biology of the disease and estimate treatment efficacy.

Many UC-authored scholarly publications are freely available on this site because of the UC Academic Senate's Open Access Policy. Let us know how this access is important for you.

Main Content
Current View