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Department of Statistics, UCLA

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Extinction Models for Cancer Stem Cell Therapy


Stem cells are now viewed as initiating and sustaining many cancers. This suggests that cancer can be cured by driving cancer stem cells to extinction. The problem with this strategy is that ordinary stem cells are apt to be killed in the process. This paper sets bounds on the killing differential that must exist for the survival of an adequate number of normal stem cells. Our main tools are birth-death Markov chains in continuous time. In this framework, we investigate the extinction times of cancer stem cells and normal stem cells. Application of extreme value theory from mathematical statistics yields an accurate asymptotic distribution and corresponding moments for both extinction times. We compare these distributions for the two cell populations as a function of the killing rates. Perhaps a more telling comparison involves the number of normal stem cells NH at the extinction time of the cancer stem cells. Conditioning on the asymptotic time to extinction of the cancer stem cells allows us to calculate the asymptotic mean and variance of NH . The full distribution of NH can be retrieved by the finite Fourier transform and, in some parameter regimes, by an eigenfunction expansion. Finally, we discuss the impact of quiescence (the resting state) on stem cell dynamics. Quiescence can act as a sanctuary for cancer stem cells and imperils the proposed therapy. We approach the complication of quiescence via multitype branching process models and stochastic simulation. Improvements to the τ-leaping method of stochastic simulation make it a versatile tool in this context. We conclude that the proposed therapy must target quiescent cancer stem cells as well as actively dividing cancer stem cells. The current cancer models demonstrate the virtue of attacking the same quantitative questions from a variety of modeling, mathematical, and computational perspectives.

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