Berkeley Program on Housing and Urban Policy

It is generally believed that the increased incidence of homelessness in the US has arisen from broad societal factors – changes in the institutionalization of the mentally ill, increases in drug addiction and alcohol usage, etc. This paper reports on a comprehensive test of the alternate hypothesis that variations in homelessness arise from changed circumstances in the housing market and in the income distribution. We utilize essentially all the systematic information available on homelessness in US urban areas – census counts, shelter bed counts, records of transfer payments, and administrative agency estimates. We use these data to estimate the effects of housing prices, vacancies, and rent-to-income ratios upon the incidence of homelessness. Our results suggest that simple economic principles governing the availability and pricing of housing and the growth in demand for the lowest quality housing explain a large portion of the variation in homelessness among US metropolitan housing markets. Furthermore, rather modest improvements in the affordability of rental housing or its availability can substantially reduce the incidence of homelessness in the US.