UCLA

Precipitation characteristics have a great influence on tropical ecosystems under a changing climate. It has been widely suggested that precipitation changes are expected to impact the populations and communities of tropical birds. Here I investigated the changes of the precipitation regime, length of the dry season (defined as months with precipitation lower than the annual mean), and the vapor pressure deficit in the tropical South America projected for 2080 – 2100 under emission scenario SSP5-8.5. It has been found that most of the studied area will experience decreasing annual precipitation (up to 37%) and increasing vapor pressure deficit (up to 190%) compared to 1970 – 2000, with seasonal variations. Furthermore, dry seasons are expected to extend over most regions and the monthly averaged precipitation within dry seasons is projected to decrease especially in Central Amazon. The protection areas identified to experience lower impacts concentrate along the east side of the Andes and northeastern Amazon.