UC Irvine

This dissertation seeks to address the fundamental question of how crime changes over time and space, and why certain areas experience higher levels of crime than others. While crime is not randomly distributed and tends to concentrate in specific locations within cities, there is a lack of comprehensive understanding regarding how crime patterns evolve across diverse urban contexts. Existing research primarily focuses on structural neighborhood characteristics, overlooking the significance of longitudinal crime patterns and the impact of changing neighborhood dynamics. Moreover, the literature predominantly examines popular big cities, neglecting the diversity of urban landscapes. To bridge these gaps, this dissertation utilizes multiple data sources to investigate crime changes and spatial patterns from 2010 to 2018 across a wide array of cities in the United States. By exploring how crime evolves at smaller geographic units (i.e., street segments) and examining the reciprocal relationship between neighborhood crime and neighborhood change, this dissertation aims to provide valuable insights into the complexities of crime and place dynamics.This dissertation addresses three main inquiries. Firstly, it investigates crime trajectories at the street segment level across various U.S. cities from 2010 to 2018, exploring the relationship between neighborhood characteristics and crime trajectories. Additionally, it examines how key neighborhood structures, as outlined in social disorganization theory, may shape crime trajectories differently across different city contexts. Notably, a small percentage of street segments is responsible for a significant portion of total violent and property crime. Segments with higher concentrated disadvantage are more likely to exhibit high crime trajectories in medium and large cities, stagnant cities, and low employment cities, while residential stability correlates with a higher likelihood of crime-free or low crime trajectories in small or growing cities. Secondly, the dissertation aims to analyze how changes in neighborhood structures over the decade influence crime changes at the egohoods level across cities. Potential patterns include a monotonic relationship, an asymmetric relationship, or perturbations where alterations in environmental features lead to an increase in crime. Lastly, the third inquiry explores the reciprocal relationship between neighborhood crime and neighborhood changes (housing investment, home values, and vacancies) across diverse city contexts. Higher percent home purchases are associated with lower violent crime in growing and high employment cities. Neighborhood crime has a significant negative impact on home values across all city contexts, leading to decreased demand for housing and increased vacancy rates in small cities but fewer vacancies in medium and large cities. Overall, this research highlights the need for customized crime prevention strategies that align with the distinct requirements and attributes of neighborhoods across diverse urban contexts.