National Center for Sustainable Transportation

Last-mile delivery, in which companies deliver goods to the end consumers, is one of the costliest segments of the supply chain and can generate significant emissions. The demand for last-mile delivery has grown in recent decades because of the emergence of e-commerce, which has reshaped consumer behavior and how companies distribute goods. E-commerce has consistently been growing for more than a decade, and growth intensified during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although e-commerce is still in a fast growth phase, there is little understanding about how much it will grow, how it will impact the transportation system, and how these impacts might differ geographically. Researchers at the University of California, Davis developed a forecasting model to quantify the potential impacts of future e-commerce on emissions and transport activity under different scenarios with assumptions about penetration levels of various technologies (e.g., electrification, rush deliveries, crowdshipping, and automation/efficiency improvements). The researchers implemented the forecasting tool in six large metropolitan areas: New York, Los Angeles, San Francisco, Dallas, Washington D.C., and Chicago. These analyses can help planning agencies and local governments to better understand and manage the potential impacts of e-commerce.

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