UCLA

The “primarying” or targeting of more moderate incumbents by outside ideological groups is commonly discussed in the press as a force for polarization that makes legislative compromise more difficult. Yet, systematic studies of the phenomenon over time are rare. This dissertation uses Federal Election Commission (FEC) and other data to measure the effects of outside ideological contributions in Congressional primaries over three decades. This analysis confirms that outside ideological groups have a discernible effect on primary outcomes and frequently target more moderate incumbents. However, periods of strong targeting do not distort the relationship between Members of Congress and the voters they represent. Rather, periods of strong targeting are followed by stronger representation as measured by the correlation between Members of Congress’s roll call ideologies and their states’ and districts’ underlying ideologies.