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Projecting Use of Electric Vehicles from Household Vehicle Trials: Trial and Error?

Abstract

In 1995-96, the authors participated in an eight-month long trial of prototype EVs, with the proviso that we could use some of the results for academic research. We were particularly interested in comparing data collected from trials with matched data collected from a panel survey. Our objective was to better understand vehicle trials as a source of information for transportation planning and market research, beyond the usual consumer preference information gathered for vehicle design purposes. The methodological issues were of particular concern, for as we discuss in the next section, trials provide useful data at one level, but they can also introduce new sources of bias and uncertainty to data collection and interpretation. We also investigated how perceptions towards EVs would change with the "hands-on" experience of a trial. 

In this paper we report findings from this trial, with a particular emphasis upon the methodological issues. We intentionally do not discuss purchase intentions, and focus, instead, upon a broader set of results. An objective is to provide transportation planners with useful data about characteristics like vehicle miles travelled, intra-household vehicle switching, and long trip taking when there are multiple data sources from the same respondents, including travel diaries and pre- and post trial panel survey data. This provides insight into how households might choose to use future electric vehicles, and it also addresses the issue of whether trials are an effective and efficient data collection method. The research is expected to provide useful information for those who wish to organize and interpret data from future consumer vehicle trials and it also provides more limited evidence about how households would use future electric vehicles that had a limited range.

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