UC Merced

Dengue fever is a mosquito-borne illness that infects 390 million people annually. Dengue outbreaks in Guatemala have been occurring more often and at increased rates since the first dengue outbreak in Guatemala in the 1970s. This study will examine environmental and socioeconomic factors associated with dengue in Guatemala at the municipality (county) level. Socioeconomic factors included population density, literacy, use of cellphones, computers, and the internet (CCI), Mayan language speakers, economic activity, and attending school. Environmental factors included elevation, temperature, and precipitation. The relationship between our environmental and socioeconomic predictor variables and the Dengue cases outcome variable was initially evaluated through chi-square tests of independence and one-way ANOVA, and then again through three zero-inflated negative binomial regression models (Socioeconomic, Environmental, and Combined). For all models, temperature and elevation were concerned as predictors of zero-inflation. Predicted rates of Dengue Fever incidence and adjusted confidence intervals were calculated after increasing mean yearly temperature by 1°C. In the combined model the significant variables included population density, use of CCI, attending school, and Mayan language speakers. There was a positive relationship between use of CCI and Dengue Fever and negative relationships between population density, attending school, and Mayan language speakers and Dengue Fever. Elevation was significant as a predictor of zero-inflation for all three regression models. The Ayutla, Ocós and Champerico, three municipalities with the highest mean yearly temperature, all had increased rates of Dengue Fever incidence following a 1°C increase in temperature, while the municipality of Guatemala had a decreased rate. This research suggests that socioeconomic factors may play a larger role in predicting risk of Dengue incidence in Guatemala when compared to environmental factors. The predicted rates of Dengue Fever also highlight the potential effect climate change (in the form of increasing temperature) can have on Dengue Fever incidence in Guatemala.