University of California Institute on Global Conflict and Cooperation

T he United States and China are engaged in an intensifying struggle for relative power, geopolitical influence, and positional advantage within East Asia and beyond. The military dimension of this bilateral competition has focused on the effectiveness of US conventional force projection capabilitiesversus the effectiveness of Chinese conventional anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) capabilities. As the back-and-forth between the rivals continues to evolve, emerging technologies such as those associated with the US Third Offset Strategy could significantly change the dynamics. It is difficult, however, to predict which side will gain and which will lose. The brief presents key factors to consider when assessing the long-term effects of these new technologies.