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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Merger Analysis and the Treatment of Uncertainty: Should We Expect Better?


Life is uncertain. So is merger analysis. There is a well-developed set of tools to deal with decision making under uncertainty. Experience suggests that the federal antitrust agencies and the courts have yet to take full advantage of those tools. This chapter suggests ways that decision theory could be applied to merger analysis to improve enforcement and its impacts on consumer welfare.

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