UC San Diego

This dissertation comprises two papers examining an understudied topic in marketing: firearm sales. Firearm sales and acquisition data are not easily obtainable, but there is a pressing need for data to study firearm policy. Chapter 1 examines candidate proxy measures to measure legal prevalence when prevalence data is not readily available. Chapter 2 examines the role of loosening firearm usage restrictions on firearm sales and public health-related outcomes including suicides and crime.

Chapter 1 introduces Legal Firearm Prevalence (LFP), a direct behavioral measure based on the population of firearm licensees in Massachusetts that captures the proportion of the population who legally own or access a firearm. We argue that LFP can help evaluate firearm sales and usage restrictions. LFP is not directly measurable in most firearm markets, so we test candidate proxies for Legal Firearm Prevalence in several common research designs, finding that firearm acquisitions is the best proxy in every research design tested. We update the classic study of guns and crime by Cook and Ludwig (2006), finding that choosing an invalid proxy can lead to false research conclusions. We recommend systematic collection and reporting of firearm acquisition data to improve firearm research and inform firearm policy.

Chapter 2 evaluates three frequent firearm usage policy changes: Concealed Carry Shall Issue (removes local authority discretion and mandates permit issuance when basic requirements are met), Permitless Concealed Carry (permit removal), and Stand Your Ground (legal protection of self-defensive use of firearms in public). I construct a unique state/month panel dataset from 2010 to 2017 and measure sales directly with sales data from an online retail platform and the federal background checks database. Using a difference-in-differences research design with staggered law adoption timing, I estimate the average policy effects on firearm sales, suicides, aggravated assaults, burglary, accidental firearm deaths, and mass shootings. The findings show that Concealed Carry Shall Issue laws increase handgun online sales and handgun background checks, while reducing that of long guns. Permitless Concealed Carry laws increase handgun background checks, firearm suicides and accidental firearm deaths. There is weak evidence of Stand Your Ground laws changing the studied outcomes.