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A Quantitative Assessment of the U.S. Electoral College, 1790-2020
- Cervas, Jonathan Robert
- Advisor(s): Grofman, Bernard
Abstract
The United States mode for election of the President consist of a two-stage process where states appoint Electors, and those Electors then vote for the President. This structure of election is often criticized because it leads to non-majoritarian outcomes. There are two mechanical features that can lead to an electoral inversion: the two-seat Senate bonus and the winner-take-all method of appointment adopted by all but two states. This dissertation evaluates these mechanical aspects of the Electoral College and finds that while indeed inversions are possible, even likely when the national vote is close, the mode of election provides for very little mechanical bias. The goal is to neither bury nor to praise the Electoral College, but to evaluate it historically on several premises that are often used by reformers seeking reform.
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