UC Berkeley

This dissertation examines the effects of food insecurity which undermine both the health and the social and economic development potential of those affected by it. The majority of both the chronically undernourished and those who face acute food security crises, often on a recurring and increasingly predictable basis, are children. The intergenerational transmission of poverty and disadvantage mediated by food insecurity and malnutrition is substantial.

Cash transfer programs for the poor have expanded rapidly in the past decade and have become a powerful political tool to combat food insecurity. This project examines nascent safety net programs in two food insecure, landlocked countries with medium and high levels of population growth: Tajikistan and Niger. While not an obvious pairing, these countries furnish illustrative examples of food security challenges in Asia and Africa. Their growth rates encompass a range which may trigger policy attention in the presence of chronic food insecurity.

The project estimates the cumulative present discount value of public budgetary commitments to cash transfers under medium and low population growth trajectories within each country. It calculates the cost savings in each country associated with slower growth over 25 and 40 year periods. It then estimates the family planning program commodity investments required to reduce fertility to a level consistent with the low growth trajectory. A comprehensive literature review of family planning program efficacy and effect sizes informs these estimates.

The work demonstrates that the cost savings to national safety net programs associated with slower population growth could cover a substantial portion of contraceptive commodity needs in each country. In some scenarios, safety net program savings exceed forecast contraceptive costs. Surplus savings could be reinvested in the safety net programs to increase benefit levels, to expand coverage, or both. Illustrative expansion levels on both margins are discussed, along with discount rate sensitivity and other methodological assumptions. Finally, implied differences in dependency ratios and the size of each national labor force associated with divergent fertility trajectories are examined. Implications for domestic tax revenue streams are discussed.

There is great potential for national safety nets and comprehensive family planning programs to benefit from shared management, staffing, infrastructure, and data collection resources, thereby driving down costs that each might incur on its own. At this time of heightened international donor interest in both cash transfers and food security, the substantial complementary contributions of voluntary family planning programs should not be overlooked.