National Center for Sustainable Transportation

This report addresses wildfire evacuation behavior under a large-scale wildfire with inadequate warning. Modeling the awareness, preparation, and departure times, the socio-demographic factors affecting evacuation timing include smartphone ownership and higher income, which were associated with earlier awareness; those living longer in the community had later preparation and departure times. This information gives insight to target those who may be most at-risk during this type of evacuation. The researchers simulate a short-notice evacuation using an agent-based model of the 2018 Camp Fire to explore different worst-case scenarios such as reduced vehicle access, smartphone loss, and delayed awareness. The researchers find that these scenarios lead to longer evacuation travel times, and that the limited vehicles and awareness delays lead to more trapped agents. Lastly, the researchers present findings of first-person interviews, which cover evacuation and post-evacuation displacement experiences. These interviews help contextualize our previous findings and present areas for future improvement.

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