University of California Transportation Center

This paper describes an ongoing project to develop a demand forecasting model for clean-fuel vehicles in California. Large-scale surveys of both households and commercial fleet operators have been carried out. These data are being used to calibrate a new micro-simulation based vehicle demand forecasting system. Based on pre-specified attributes of future vehicles (including specified clean-fueled vehicle incentives), the system will produce annual forecasts of new and used vehicle demand by type of vehicle and geographic region. The system will also forecast annual vehicle miles traveled for all vehicles and recharging demand by time of day for electric vehicles. These results are potentially useful to utility companies in their demand-side management planning, to public agencies in their evaluation incentive schemes, and to manufacturers faced with designing and marketing clean-fuel vehicles.