Institute of Governmental Studies

What are the public opinion consequences when public policy moves in a more liberal or conservative direction? The accepted wisdom on ideology in public opinion is that it is largely ephemeral for most people. While this is undoubtedly true, it is also possible that the relative salience of ideology could vary over time. As ideological distinctions become more important in political debate, ideology itself may come to mean more to the mass public. In addition, while ideology may be a nebulous concept for individuals to grasp, perhaps on average it is sensitive to shifts in public policy.

This paper represents an initial investigation of these questions, with an emphasis on the first question. It finds—tentatively—that as Congress and the President produce more major legislation that is polarized along ideological lines, people increasingly have ideologies, and those who have ideologies are increasingly polarized towards the ends of the scale.

Prepared for delivery at the Colloquium on American Politics, October 31, 2005