In his book entitled Three Revolutions: Steering Shared, Automated and Electric Vehicles to a Better Future, UC Davis Professor Dan Sperling describes two scenarios that could result from new automated vehicles (AVs). In the “nightmare scenario,” consumers privately own AVs and vehicle miles travelled (VMT) per capita increase (along with traffic and emissions) due to greater ease and accessibility of car travel. In the “dream scenario,” consumers relinquish private car ownership in favor of pooling rides in shared autonomous vehicle (SAV) fleets, resulting in a reduction of VMT per capita, traffic, and emissions. Achieving the dream scenario depends on consumers’ willingness to share rides with others.
