UC San Diego

I argue that voters do quite well translating their preferences to votes in ballot proposition races vis-à-vis presidential elections. Overall voters get it right almost 80% of the time, and on some ballot measures more than 85% vote correctly. Though some initiatives are 'harder issues' (see Carmines and Stimson 1980) and voters are less successful at voting correctly on those issues, they still get it right upwards of 70% of the time. Confusion, while not a clear cause of a status quo bias in direct democracy, does impair the ability of voters to vote correctly. Conversely, voters who are aware of political cues or heuristics are better able to match their stated preferences with their votes or more simply, vote correctly. No matter your judgment about the levels of correct voting, the 80% that get it right is a good level or the 20% that get it wrong is mind blowingly unacceptable, it is a rare occurrence that election results would actually change if everyone voted correctly