UCLA

In the world of Major League Baseball, the 2021 San Francisco Giants season stands as a remarkable instance of overperformance, defying the expectations of analysts and fans alike. This study seeks to unravel the factors contributing to the Giants’ unexpected success by addressing the research question: what made the 2021 San Francisco Giants so much better than expected?The primary objective of this research is to analyze the discrepancies between forecasted and observed data to pinpoint areas of overperformance. To achieve this, I conducted a thorough examination of both team-level and individual-level statistics. The analysis extends beyond basic metrics to include an in-depth look at the resurgence of veteran players and the critical role of pitching. Methodologically, this research involved gathering extensive data on player performances and team outcomes. By comparing preseason projections with end-of-season statistics, I identified key variances and their potential causes. The study encompassed various performance indicators, including win-loss percentages, ERA, FIP, and WAR, both at the team and individual levels. The findings reveal that the Giants’ overperformance in 2021 can be attributed to a combination of factors. At the team level, strategic decisions and effective management played a significant role. On an individual level, several veteran players experienced career resurgences, significantly surpassing their projected statistics. Additionally, the importance of pitching cannot be understated, as key pitchers outperformed expectations, contributing to the team’s overall success. In conclusion, the 2021 season for the San Francisco Giants illustrates a complex interplay of factors leading to their overperformance. While it remains challenging to definitively classify their success as purely luck or a result of precise strategic execution, the contributions of standout players were undeniably crucial. This research underscores the multifaceted nature of baseball success and highlights the potential for unexpected outcomes even in a data-driven sport.