Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics

Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI, H5N1) is the most recent example of a legacy of Transboundary Animal Diseases (TADs) that have challenged the agro-food economy and public health for millennia. As the world economy becomes more highly integrated, and as the aggregate economic value of both the agro-food economy and human life continue to rise, so does the economic risk posed by TADs. These risks are especially acute in the case of TADs with mutagenic potential for animal to human (zoonotic) and human to human transmission. Estimates from the SARS epidemic (World Bank:2006) suggest that economic damages from a serious future pandemic could be measured in trillions of dollars, and some biologists see the emergence of such diseases as relatively inevitable, much like seismic risk in earthquake prone regions.

Antimicrobial resistance operates within the same animal-health system and conditions the outcomes of transboundary events. Recent global evidence indicates a rising mortality burden among older populations, alongside large avoidable losses where diagnosis is confirmed earlier, effective treatment is available, and antimicrobial use follows clear rules. For the GMS, these functions are not adjuncts but core defences: predictable laboratory turnaround, prescription compliance aligned with farm and slaughter practice, and routine checks along the cold chain support disease control while preserving the credibility of trade (GBD 2021 Antimicrobial Resistance Collaborators, 2024).

For policy makers to devise effective defences against TADs risks, it is important that economic vulnerabilities be clearly understood. Particularly when society must commit significant resources to public defensive measures, these commitments can be more easily justified and better targeted if we understand the costs of inaction or he economic consequences of alternative responsive policies. This report seeks to strengthen the basis of such evidence by reviewing recent TADs history, examining available data on the economic impacts of a wide variety of disease types and locations where outbreaks occurred. We make no attempt to be exhaustive, and in some cases reliable data are very scarce and/or uncertain. Only by improving our perceptions of the economic impact of TADs, however, can we expect to make the most appropriate future commitments to disease risk management and coping.