Institute of Transportation Studies at UC Berkeley

For evacuations, people must make the critical decision to evacuate or stay followed by a multi-dimensional choice composed of concurrent decisions of their departure time, transportation mode, route, destination, and shelter type. These choices have important impacts on transportation response and evacuation outcomes. While extensive research has been conducted on hurricane evacuation behavior, little is known about wildfire evacuation behavior. To address this critical research gap, particularly related to joint choice-making in wildfires, we surveyed individuals impacted by the 2017 December Southern California Wildfires (n = 226) and the 2018 Carr Wildfire (n = 284). Using these data, we contribute to the literature in two key ways. First, we develop two latent class choice models (LCCMs) to evaluate the factors that influence the decision to evacuate or stay/defend. We find an evacuation keen class and an evacuation reluctant class that are influenced differently by mandatory evacuation orders. This nuance is further supported by different membership of people to the classes based on demographics and risk perceptions. Second, we develop two portfolio choice models (PCMs), which jointly model choice dimensions to assess multi-dimensional evacuation choice. We find several similarities between wildfires including a joint preference for within-county and nighttime evacuations and a joint dislike for within-county and highway evacuations. Altogether, this paper provides evidence of heterogeneity in response to mandatory evacuation orders for wildfires, distinct membership of populations to different classes of people for evacuating or staying/defending, and clear correlation among key wildfire evacuation choices that necessitates joint modeling to holistically understanding wildfire evacuation behavior.

Recent technological improvements have greatly expanded the sharing economy (e.g., Airbnb, Lyft, and Uber), coinciding with growing need for transportation and sheltering resources in evacuations. To understand influencers on sharing willingness in evacuations, we employed a multi-modeling approach across four sharing scenarios using three model types: 1) four binary logit models that capture each scenario separately; 2) a multi-choice latent class choice model (LCCM) that jointly estimates multiple scenarios via latent classes; and 3) a portfolio choice model (PCM) that estimates dimensional dependency. We tested our approach by employing online survey data from 2017 Hurricane Irma evacuees (n=368).

The multi-model approach uncovered behavioral nuances undetectable with a single model. First, the multi-choice LCCM and PCM models uncovered scenario correlation, specifically willingness to share for both transportation scenarios and both sheltering scenarios. Second, the multi-choice LCCM found three classes – transportation sharers, adverse sharers, and interested sharers. Transportation sharers were more likely to be female, lower-income, and residents of Southwest Florida compared to adverse sharers. Interested sharers were more likely to be male, long-time residents, and higher-income compared to adverse sharers. Third, families with children were unwilling to share regardless of the model, while spare capacity (i.e., seatbelts, spare beds) had a positive but somewhat insignificant influence on sharing. Fourth, experienced home sharers were more willing to share shelter in the binary logit and PCM models. We suggest that local agencies consider holistic sharing mechanisms across resource types and time (i.e., before, during, and after a hurricane evacuation).

Flexibility in California Transportation Funding Programs and Implications for More Climate-Aligned Spending examines key features of the legislative authority for transportation planning and finance in California, including local option sales taxes for transportation, and assesses the amount of flexibility that current laws and practices allow for reprioritizing projects as problems and priorities change.

Examination of Key Transportation Funding Programs in California and Their Context assesses the congruence between funding programs and state goals for transportation. Particular attention is given to major funding sources, such the State Operation and Protection Program, and programs designed to promote key state goals, including the Affordable Housing and Sustainable Communities program, the Transit and Intercity Rail Capital Program, the Transformative Climate Communities program, and the Sustainable Transportation Planning Grant program.

A Brief History of Transportation Policy and Institutions presents the development of transportation systems in the United States, with particular attention to California. The review includes key technological advances in transportation and the institutions that were developed to implement them. The paper also discusses the problem of organizational inertia and the issues associated with changing organizational culture to better reflect the problems of the day. Review of Statewide Transportation Plans for California reviews the most recently adopted CTP and other key transportation plans adopted by state agencies, discusses the special attention given to new technologies in the CTP, and presents the findings from over 80 interviews with stakeholders across California who were asked to weigh in on the strengths and weaknesses of transportation planning practices in the state.

MPO Planning and Implementation of State Policy Goals evaluates California metropolitan planning organizations’ regional transportation plans and sustainable communities strategies and looks at the relationship between MPO plans and what is actually funded through transportation improvement programs.

Assembly Bill (AB) 285 (Friedman, 2019) requires the California Strategic Growth Council (SGC) to submit a report to the Legislature by January 31, 2022, that includes the following:

An overview of the California Transportation Plan (CTP). An overview of all regional Sustainable Communities Strategies (SCS) and any alternative planning strategies, as needed. An assessment of how the implementation of the CTP and regional plans “will influence the configuration of the statewide integrated multimodal transportation system.”  A “review of the potential impacts and opportunities for coordination” of key state funding programs,” to be conducted in consultation with the administering agencies.  Recommendations for the improvement of these programs or other relevant transportation funding programs to better align the programs to meet long-term common goals, including the goals outlined in the CTP.

In spring 2021, the SGC contracted with the University of California (UC) to provide materials supporting its report to the Legislature. Researchers at the UC Berkeley Institute of Transportation Studies (ITS), UC Davis ITS, UCLA ITS, and Berkeley Law joined forces to prepare a series of papers to provide the evidentiary basis for the project. The UC Berkeley principal investigator coordinated the work and prepared this final summary report. The report is based on findings from the professional and academic literature, a detailed analysis of the identified plans and programs of concern, meetings with staff of the agencies whose plans are being reviewed, feedback from briefings and presentations on draft findings, and nearly 100 hours of individual interviews with stakeholders across California.

Over the past several years, Urban Air Mobility (UAM) has galvanized enthusiasm from investors and researchers, marrying expertise in aircraft design, transportation, logistics, artificial intelligence, battery chemistry, and broader policymaking. However, two significant questions remain unexplored: (1) What is the value of UAM in a region’s transportation network?, and (2) How can UAM be effectively deployed to realize and maximize this value to all stakeholders, including riders and local economies? To adequately understand the value proposition of UAM for metropolitan areas, we develop a holistic multi-modal toolchain, SimUAM, to model and simulate UAM and its impacts on travel behavior. This toolchain has several components: (1) MANTA: A fast, high-fidelity regional-scale traffic microsimulator, (2) VertiSim: A granular, discrete-event vertiport and pedestrian, (3) FE³ : A high-fidelity, trajectory-based aerial microsimulation. SimUAM, rooted in granular, GPU-based microsimulation, models millions of trips and their exact movements in the street network and in the air, producing interpretable and actionable performance metrics for UAM designs and deployments. The modularity, extensibility, and speed of the platform will allow for rapid scenario planning and sensitivity analysis, effectively acting as a detailed performance assessment tool. As a result, stakeholders in UAM can understand the impacts of critical infrastructure, and subsequently define policies, requirements, and investments needed to support UAM as a viable transportation mode.