Liquids can splash, squirt, gush, slosh, soak, drip, drain,
trickle, pool, and be poured–complex behaviors that we can
easily distinguish, imagine, describe, and, crucially, predict,
despite tremendous diversity among different liquids’ material
and dynamical characteristics. This proficiency suggests the
brain has a sophisticated cognitive mechanism for reasoning
about liquids, yet to date there has been little effort to study this
mechanism quantitatively or describe it computationally. Here
we find evidence that people’s reasoning about how liquids
move is consistent with a computational cognitive model based
on approximate probabilistic simulation. In a psychophysical
experiment, participants predicted how different liquids would
flow around solid obstacles, and their judgments agreed with
those of a family of models in which volumes of liquid are
represented as collections of interacting particles, within a dynamical
fluid simulation. Our model explains people’s accuracy,
and their predictions’ sensitivity to liquids of different
viscosity. We also explored several models that did not involve
simulation, and found they could not account for the experimental
data as well. Our results are consistent with previous
reports that people’s physical understanding of solid objects is
based on simulation, but extends this thesis to the more complex
and unexplored domain of reasoning about liquids