In An Enquiry Concerning Political Justice, the philosopher and novelist William Godwin raises the concern that the earth may one day “be in danger of becoming too populous,” a cataclysm for which “a remedy may then be necessary.” What this remedy will be, however, Godwin does not know. “Who can say,” he writes, “what remedies shall suggest themselves for so distant an inconvenience, time enough for practical application, and of which we may yet at this time have not the smallest idea?” As this passage makes clear, Godwin was alert to the possibility that the future could end up looking very different than the present. But this passage also makes clear that Godwin struggled to actually imagine what that future might look like.
In my dissertation I focus on the tension between this impulse to think about the future and the opposing inability, or unwillingness, to speculate on the specific social and technological conditions that might be extrapolated from the present. In doing so, I elucidate a genealogy of speculation that runs through the nonfiction of political philosophy, particularly that which appeared in England after the French Revolution. Godwin was not alone in his attention to the future, nor was he alone in his attention to population as a vector for projecting rational thought into the future. In addition to reading Godwin’s Political Justice, I attend to the major works of Mary Wollstonecraft and Thomas Malthus – in particular, Letters Written During a Short Residence in Sweden, Norway, and Denmark and An Essay on the Principle of Population. Like Godwin, Wollstonecraft and Malthus draw on a speculative imaginary in the course of analytic examination that itself often rejects, or at least resists, a mode of understanding based on speculation. Godwin’s concession that there may one day exist a remedy to the problem of overpopulation that cannot be imagined in the present betrays a speculative imaginary restrained by formal conventions and by speculation’s association with utopian dreaming.
Yet I argue that the fact that these thinkers do speculate in works of nonfiction political philosophy about the future using imagination signals the presence of a tradition of speculation grounded in a commitment to the real, one that runs parallel to the kinds of speculation found in Thomas More’s Utopia or Jonathan Swift’s Gulliver’s Travels. This commitment to the real is evident in some of the earliest science fiction and is indeed one that continues to structure science fiction today. The concept of the future that holds not just our hopes and dreams but the worlds of our own making is historically constructed and begins to emerge at the end of the eighteenth century. At a time when it seemed like the task of describing the world was one that necessitated conjecture, these thinkers took up speculation as a way to contend with a future they knew would be shaped not by imagination alone but by that fatal fusion of reason and imagination that can destroy worlds just as surely as it can build them.