Objective

To predict changes in wage growth for health care workers based on projections of insurance enrollment from the Affordable Care Act (ACA).

Data sources

Enrollment data came from three large employers and a sampling of premiums from ehealthinsurance.com. Information on state Medicaid eligibility rules and costs were from the Kaiser Family Foundation. National predictions were based on the MEPS and Medicare Current Beneficiary surveys. Bureau of Labor Statistics data were used to estimate employment.

Study design

We projected health insurance enrollment by plan type using a health plan choice model. Using claims data, we measured the services demanded for each plan choice and year. Projections of labor demand were based on current output/input ratios. Changes in wages resulting from changes in labor demand from 2014 to 2021 were based on labor supply and demand elasticities.

Principal findings

Expenditures required to retain and grow the health care workforce will increase substantially. Wages will increase most for professions with the greatest training requirements (physicians and registered nurses). The largest impact will be felt in 2015.

Conclusions

Projected wage increases for health care workers may drive substantial growth in insurance premiums and reduce the affordability of health insurance.

Background

Many patients with Alzheimer's disease and related dementia (ADRD) have chronic hepatitis C due to the high prevalence of both conditions among elderly populations. Direct-acting antivirals (DAAs) are effective in treating hepatitis C virus (HCV). However, the complexity of ADRD care may affect DAA use and outcomes among patients with HCV and ADRD. Little information exists on uptake of DAAs, factors associated with DAA use, and health benefits of DAAs among patients with HCV and ADRD.

Objective

To examine use and survival benefits of DAAs in Medicare patients with HCV and ADRD.

Methods

The study included Medicare patients with HCV between 2014 and 2017. We estimated Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine the association between having ADRD and DAA use, and the relation between DAA use and survival among patients with HCV and ADRD.

Results

The adjusted hazard of initiating a DAA was 50% lower in patients with ADRD than those without ADRD (adjusted HR = 0.50, 95% CI: 0.46-0.54). The hazard of DAA use among ADRD patients with behavioral disturbances was 68% lower than non-ADRD patients (adjusted HR = 0.32, 95% CI: 0.28-0.37). DAA treatment was associated with a significant reduction in mortality among ADRD patients (adjusted HR = 0.52, 95% CI: 0.44-0.61).

Conclusion

The rate of DAA treatment in patients with HCV and ADRD was low, particularly among those with behavioral disturbance. The survival benefits of DAA treatment for patients with ADRD were substantial.