Background

Cost-effectiveness acceptability curves (CEACs) describe the probability that a new treatment or intervention is cost-effective. The net benefit regression framework (NBRF) allows cost-effectiveness analysis to be done in a simple regression framework. The objective of the paper is to illustrate how net benefit regression can be used to construct a CEAC.

Methods

One hundred patients referred for ambulatory monitoring with syncope or presyncope were randomized to a one-month external loop recorder (n = 49) or 48-hour Holter monitor (n = 51). The primary endpoint was symptom-rhythm correlation during monitoring. Direct costs were calculated based on the 2003 Ontario Health Insurance Plan (OHIP) fee schedule combined with hospital case costing of labour, materials, service and overhead costs for diagnostic testing and related equipment.

Results

In the loop recorder group, 63.27% of patients (31/49) had symptom recurrence and successful activation, compared to 23.53% in the Holter group (12/51). The cost in US dollars for loop recording was 648.50 dollars and 212.92 dollars for Holter monitoring. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) of the loop recorder was 1,096 dollars per extra successful diagnosis. The probability that the loop recorder was cost-effective compared to the Holter monitor was estimated using net benefit regression and plotted on a CEAC. In a sensitivity analysis, bootstrapping was used to examine the effect of distributional assumptions.

Conclusion

The NBRF is straightforward to use and interpret. The resulting uncertainty surrounding the regression coefficient relates to the CEAC. When the link from the regression's p-value to the probability of cost-effectiveness is tentative, bootstrapping may be used.

Background

Genetic variants in calsequestrin-2 (CASQ2) cause an autosomal recessive form of catecholaminergic polymorphic ventricular tachycardia (CPVT), although isolated reports have identified arrhythmic phenotypes among heterozygotes. Improved insight into the inheritance patterns, arrhythmic risks, and molecular mechanisms of CASQ2-CPVT was sought through an international multicenter collaboration.

Methods

Genotype-phenotype segregation in CASQ2-CPVT families was assessed, and the impact of genotype on arrhythmic risk was evaluated using Cox regression models. Putative dominant CASQ2 missense variants and the established recessive CASQ2-p.R33Q variant were evaluated using oligomerization assays and their locations mapped to a recent CASQ2 filament structure.

Results

A total of 112 individuals, including 36 CPVT probands (24 homozygotes/compound heterozygotes and 12 heterozygotes) and 76 family members possessing at least 1 presumed pathogenic CASQ2 variant, were identified. Among CASQ2 homozygotes and compound heterozygotes, clinical penetrance was 97.1% and 26 of 34 (76.5%) individuals had experienced a potentially fatal arrhythmic event with a median age of onset of 7 years (95% CI, 6-11). Fifty-one of 66 CASQ2 heterozygous family members had undergone clinical evaluation, and 17 of 51 (33.3%) met diagnostic criteria for CPVT. Relative to CASQ2 heterozygotes, CASQ2 homozygote/compound heterozygote genotype status in probands was associated with a 3.2-fold (95% CI, 1.3-8.0; P=0.013) increased hazard of a composite of cardiac syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death, but a 38.8-fold (95% CI, 5.6-269.1; P<0.001) increased hazard in genotype-positive family members. In vitro turbidity assays revealed that p.R33Q and all 6 candidate dominant CASQ2 missense variants evaluated exhibited filamentation defects, but only p.R33Q convincingly failed to dimerize. Structural analysis revealed that 3 of these 6 putative dominant negative missense variants localized to an electronegative pocket considered critical for back-to-back binding of dimers.

Conclusions

This international multicenter study of CASQ2-CPVT redefines its heritability and confirms that pathogenic heterozygous CASQ2 variants may manifest with a CPVT phenotype, indicating a need to clinically screen these individuals. A dominant mode of inheritance appears intrinsic to certain missense variants because of their location and function within the CASQ2 filament structure.

Background

Insight into type 5 long QT syndrome (LQT5) has been limited to case reports and small family series. Improved understanding of the clinical phenotype and genetic features associated with rare KCNE1 variants implicated in LQT5 was sought through an international multicenter collaboration.

Methods

Patients with either presumed autosomal dominant LQT5 (N = 229) or the recessive Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome (N = 19) were enrolled from 22 genetic arrhythmia clinics and 4 registries from 9 countries. KCNE1 variants were evaluated for ECG penetrance (defined as QTc >460 ms on presenting ECG) and genotype-phenotype segregation. Multivariable Cox regression was used to compare the associations between clinical and genetic variables with a composite primary outcome of definite arrhythmic events, including appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator shocks, aborted cardiac arrest, and sudden cardiac death.

Results

A total of 32 distinct KCNE1 rare variants were identified in 89 probands and 140 genotype positive family members with presumed LQT5 and an additional 19 Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome patients. Among presumed LQT5 patients, the mean QTc on presenting ECG was significantly longer in probands (476.9±38.6 ms) compared with genotype positive family members (441.8±30.9 ms, P<0.001). ECG penetrance for heterozygous genotype positive family members was 20.7% (29/140). A definite arrhythmic event was experienced in 16.9% (15/89) of heterozygous probands in comparison with 1.4% (2/140) of family members (adjusted hazard ratio [HR] 11.6 [95% CI, 2.6-52.2]; P=0.001). Event incidence did not differ significantly for Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome patients relative to the overall heterozygous cohort (10.5% [2/19]; HR 1.7 [95% CI, 0.3-10.8], P=0.590). The cumulative prevalence of the 32 KCNE1 variants in the Genome Aggregation Database, which is a human database of exome and genome sequencing data from now over 140 000 individuals, was 238-fold greater than the anticipated prevalence of all LQT5 combined (0.238% vs 0.001%).

Conclusions

The present study suggests that putative/confirmed loss-of-function KCNE1 variants predispose to QT prolongation, however, the low ECG penetrance observed suggests they do not manifest clinically in the majority of individuals, aligning with the mild phenotype observed for Type 2 Jervell and Lange-Nielsen syndrome patients.

Arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathy (ACM) is an inherited arrhythmia syndrome characterized by severe structural and electrical cardiac phenotypes, including myocardial fibrofatty replacement and sudden cardiac death. Clinical management of ACM is largely palliative, owing to an absence of therapies that target its underlying pathophysiology, which stems partially from our limited insight into the condition. Following identification of deceased ACM probands possessing ANK2 rare variants and evidence of ankyrin-B loss of function on cardiac tissue analysis, an ANK2 mouse model was found to develop dramatic structural abnormalities reflective of human ACM, including biventricular dilation, reduced ejection fraction, cardiac fibrosis, and premature death. Desmosomal structure and function appeared preserved in diseased human and murine specimens in the presence of markedly abnormal β-catenin expression and patterning, leading to identification of a previously unknown interaction between ankyrin-B and β-catenin. A pharmacological activator of the WNT/β-catenin pathway, SB-216763, successfully prevented and partially reversed the murine ACM phenotypes. Our findings introduce what we believe to be a new pathway for ACM, a role of ankyrin-B in cardiac structure and signaling, a molecular link between ankyrin-B and β-catenin, and evidence for targeted activation of the WNT/β-catenin pathway as a potential treatment for this disease.