Supersymmetric microstate geometries with five non-compact dimensions have
recently been shown by Eperon, Reall, and Santos (ERS) to exhibit a non-linear
instability featuring the growth of excitations at an "evanescent ergosurface"
of infinite redshift. We argue that this growth may be treated as adiabatic
evolution along a family of exactly supersymmetric solutions in the limit where
the excitations are Aichelburg-Sexl-like shockwaves. In the 2-charge system
such solutions may be constructed explicitly, incorporating full backreaction,
and are in fact special cases of known microstate geometries. In a near-horizon
limit, they reduce to Aichelburg-Sexl shockwaves in $AdS_3 \times S^3$
propagating along one of the angular directions of the sphere. Noting that the
ERS analysis is valid in the limit of large microstate angular momentum $j$, we
use the above identification to interpret their instability as a transition
from rare smooth microstates with large angular momentum to more typical
microstates with smaller angular momentum. This entropic driving terminates
when the angular momentum decreases to $j \sim \sqrt{n_1n_5}$ where the density
of microstates is maximal. We argue that, at this point, the large stringy
corrections to such microstates will render them non-linearly stable. We
identify a possible mechanism for this stabilization and detail an illustrative
toy model.