An important and largely unaddressed issue in studies of biotic-abiotic relationships is the extent to which closely related species, or species living in similar habitats, have similar responses to weather. We addressed this by applying a hierarchical, Bayesian analytical framework to a long-term data set for butterflies which allowed us to simultaneously investigate responses of the entire fauna and individual species. A small number of variables had community-level effects. In particular, higher total annual snow depth had a positive effect on butterfly occurrences, while spring minimum temperature and El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) sea-surface variables for April-May had negative standardized coefficients. Our most important finding was that variables with large impacts at the community-level did not necessarily have a consistent response across all species. Species-level responses were much more similar to each other for snow depth compared to the other variables with strong community effects. This variation in species-level responses to weather variables raises important complications for the prediction of biotic responses to shifting climatic conditions. In addition, we found that clear associations with weather can be detected when considering ecologically delimited subsets of the community. For example, resident species and non-ruderal species had a much more unified response to weather variables compared to non-resident species and ruderal species, which suggests local adaptation to climate. These results highlight the complexity of biotic-abiotic interactions and confront that complexity with methodological advances that allow ecologists to understand communities and shifting climates while simultaneously revealing species-specific variation in response to climate.

Temporal isolation remains an understudied, and potentially under-appreciated, mechanism of reproductive isolation. Phenological differences have been discovered in populations of the pine white butterfly (Neophasia menapia), a typically univoltine species found throughout western North America. At two locations in the Coast Range of California there are two periods of adult emergence per year, one in early summer (July) and one in late summer/autumn (September/October). Differences in flight time are accompanied by differences in wing shape and pigmentation. Here we use a combination of population genomics and morphological analyses to assess the extent to which temporal isolation is able to limit gene flow between sympatric early and late flights. Not only did we detect both genetic and morphological differences between early and late flights at the two sites, we also found that the patterns of differentiation between the two flights were different at each location, suggesting an independent origin for the two sympatric flights. Additionally, we found no evidence that these sympatric flights originated via colonization from any of the other sampled localities. We discuss several potential hypotheses about the origin of these temporally isolated sympatric flights.

Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.

Aim: To evaluate three phylogeographical models associated with the presence of mountains (montane vicariance, sky island and parapatry) as drivers of intraspecific diversification in the sandhill skipper, Polites sabuleti (Lepidoptera: Hesperiidae), a morphologically variable species found in a variety of habitats from sea level to the alpine zone. Location: Western North America. Methods: The mitochondrial cytochrome c oxidase subunit II region was sequenced in 189 P. sabuleti individuals. Mitochondrial sequences were used in a spatial analysis of molecular variance (SAMOVA) to evaluate geographical population structure. AFLP markers were also generated for 347 individuals in order to estimate admixture proportions and examine population differentiation based on the nuclear genome. Results: Twenty-five mitochondrial haplotypes and 42 anonymous AFLP loci were found across 36 collection localities. Mitochondrial variation suggests a degree of regional population structure, although at least one of the inferred population groups extends over nearly the entire geographical range of the species. Analyses of nuclear data (AFLPs) identified five genetic clusters, including one restricted to high elevations in the Sierra Nevada. Main conclusions: The distribution of genetic variation within Polites sabuleti, a species with a broad elevational range, does not strictly support either mountain-associated vicariance or 'sky island' isolation as the dominant process. Instead, we find complex population structure, including evidence for divergence between high- and low-elevation populations in the Sierra Nevada mountains.

Migratory animals pose unique challenges for conservation biologists, and we have much to learn about how migratory species respond to drivers of global change. Research has cast doubt on the stability of the eastern monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America, but the western monarchs have not been as intensively examined. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, sightings of western monarchs over approximately 40 years were investigated using summer flight records from ten sites along an elevational transect in Northern California. Multiple weather variables were examined, including local and regional temperature and precipitation. Population trends from the ten focal sites and a subset of western overwintering sites were compared to summer and overwintering data from the eastern migration. Records showed western overwintering grounds and western breeding grounds had negative trends over time, with declines concentrated early in the breeding season, which were potentially more severe than in the eastern population. Temporal variation in the western monarch also appears to be largely independent of (uncorrelated with) the dynamics in the east. For our focal sites, warmer temperatures had positive effects during winter and spring, and precipitation had a positive effect during spring. These climatic associations add to our understanding of biotic-abiotic interactions in a migratory butterfly, but shifting climatic conditions do not explain the overall, long-term, negative population trajectory observed in our data.

Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population-level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long-term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population-level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.

The butterfly fauna of lowland Northern California has exhibited a marked decline in recent years that previous studies have attributed in part to altered climatic conditions and changes in land use. Here, we ask if a shift in insecticide use towards neonicotinoids is associated with butterfly declines at four sites in the region that have been monitored for four decades. A negative association between butterfly populations and increasing neonicotinoid application is detectable while controlling for land use and other factors, and appears to be more severe for smaller-bodied species. These results suggest that neonicotinoids could influence non-target insect populations occurring in proximity to application locations, and highlights the need for mechanistic work to complement long-term observational data.