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Open Access Publications from the University of California

Scholarly Works (7 results)

  • Article
  • Peer Reviewed
Recent Work (2015)

Highways provide commuter traffic and goods movement among regions and cities through wild, protected areas. Wildlife-vehicle collisions (WVC) can occur frequently when wildlife are present, impacting drivers and animals. Because collisions are often avoidable with constructed mitigation and reduced speeds, transportation agencies often want to know where they can act most effectively and what kinds of mitigation are cost-effective. For this study, WVC occurrences were obtained from two sources: 1) highway agencies that monitor carcass retrieval and disposal by agency maintenance staff and 2) opportunistic observations of carcasses by participants in two statewide systems, the California Roadkill Observation System (CROS; http://wildlifecrossing.net/california) and the Maine Audubon Wildlife Road Watch (MAWRW; http://wildlifecrossing.net/maine). Between September, 2009 and December 31, 2014, >33,700 independent observations of >450 vertebrate species had been recorded in these online, form-based informatics systems by >1,300 observers. We asked whether or not WVC observations collected by these extensive, volunteer-science networks could be used to inform transportation-mitigation planning. Cluster analyses of volunteer-observed WVC were performed using spatial autocorrelation tests for parts or all of 34 state highways and interstates. Statistically-significant WVC hotspots were modeled using the Getis- Ord Gi* statistic. High density locations of WVC, that were not necessarily hotspots, were also visualized. Statistically-significant hotspots were identified along ~7,900 km of highways. These hotspots are shown to vary in position from year to year. For highways with frequent deer-vehicle collisions, annual costs from

collisions ranged from US$0 to >US$30,000/km. Carcass clusters from volunteer data had very little or no overlap with similar findings from agency-collected WVC data, during a different time-range. We show that both state agency-collected and volunteer-collection of WVC observations could be useful in prioritizing mitigation action at US state-scales by state transportation agencies to protect biodiversity and driver safety. Because of the spatial extent and taxonomic accuracy at which volunteer observations can be collected, these may be the most important source of data for transportation agencies to protect drivers and wildlife.

    Cover page: Wildlife-vehicle collision hotspots at US highway extents: scale and data source effects
    • Article
    Research Reports (2012)
    The numerous effects roads have on the surrounding environment were investigated and geographically modeled. Several of these effects were then isolated and looked at in greater detail, developing a model that represents the various interactions between a road and the surrounding region. These road effects could be expressed in a GIS (geographic information system) environment, based on user-inputs. A traffic noise model was used to estimate the extent and intensity of this road effect. Environmental attributes were also summarized within the traffic noise effect zone as an example of evaluation of road effects useful during early transportation planning. The model was designed to be a proof-of-concept of a standalone tool for environmental and transportation planners in local and state agencies.
      Cover page: The Road Effect Zone GIS Model
      • Article
      • Peer Reviewed
      UC Davis Previously Published Works (2020)
      1. The changing climate is altering species distributions with consequences for population dynamics, resulting in winners and losers in the Anthropocene. 2. Agraulis vanillae, the gulf fritillary butterfly, has expanded its range in the past 100 years in the western U.S.A. Time series analysis is combined with species distribution modelling to investigate factors limiting the distribution of A. vanillae and to predict future shifts under warming scenarios. 3. Time series analyses from the western U.S.A. show that urban development has a positive association with year of colonisation (the host plant Passiflora is an ornamental in gardens). Colonisation was also associated positively and to a lesser extent with winter maximum temperatures, whereas a negative impact of minimum temperatures and precipitation was apparent on population growth rates after establishment. 4. Species distribution models vary by region. In the eastern U.S.A., the butterfly is primarily limited by minimum temperatures in the winter and host availability later in the season. Eastern U.S. projected expansion broadly follows the expectation of poleward distributional shifts, especially for the butterfly's maximum annual extent. Western U.S. distributions are limited by the host plant, which in turn is dependent on urban centres. Projected western U.S. expansion is not limited to a single direction and is driven by urban centres becoming more suitable for the host plant. 5. These results demonstrate the value of combining time series with spatial modelling, at the same time as incorporating biotic interactions, aiming to understand and predict shifting geographical ranges in the Anthropocene.
        Cover page: A winner in the Anthropocene: changing host plant distribution explains geographical range expansion in the gulf fritillary butterfly
        • Article
        • Peer Reviewed
        UC Davis Previously Published Works (2021)
        Insects have diversified through more than 450 million y of Earth's changeable climate, yet rapidly shifting patterns of temperature and precipitation now pose novel challenges as they combine with decades of other anthropogenic stressors including the conversion and degradation of land. Here, we consider how insects are responding to recent climate change while summarizing the literature on long-term monitoring of insect populations in the context of climatic fluctuations. Results to date suggest that climate change impacts on insects have the potential to be considerable, even when compared with changes in land use. The importance of climate is illustrated with a case study from the butterflies of Northern California, where we find that population declines have been severe in high-elevation areas removed from the most immediate effects of habitat loss. These results shed light on the complexity of montane-adapted insects responding to changing abiotic conditions. We also consider methodological issues that would improve syntheses of results across long-term insect datasets and highlight directions for future empirical work.
          • Article
          • Peer Reviewed
          UC Davis Previously Published Works (2010)
          Climate change and habitat destruction have been linked to global declines in vertebrate biodiversity, including mammals, amphibians, birds, and fishes. However, invertebrates make up the vast majority of global species richness, and the combined effects of climate change and land use on invertebrates remain poorly understood. Here we present 35 years of data on 159 species of butterflies from 10 sites along an elevational gradient spanning 0-2,775 m in a biodiversity hotspot, the Sierra Nevada Mountains of Northern California. Species richness has declined at half of the sites, with the most severe reductions at the lowest elevations, where habitat destruction is greatest. At higher elevations, we observed clear upward shifts in the elevational ranges of species, consistent with the influence of global warming. Taken together, these long-term data reveal the interacting negative effects of human-induced changes on both the climate and habitat available to butterfly species in California. Furthermore, the decline of ruderal, disturbance-associated species indicates that the traditional focus of conservation efforts on more specialized and less dispersive species should be broadened to include entire faunas when estimating and predicting the effects of pervasive stressors.
            • Article
            • Peer Reviewed
            UC Davis Previously Published Works (2016)
            Migratory animals pose unique challenges for conservation biologists, and we have much to learn about how migratory species respond to drivers of global change. Research has cast doubt on the stability of the eastern monarch butterfly (Danaus plexippus) population in North America, but the western monarchs have not been as intensively examined. Using a Bayesian hierarchical model, sightings of western monarchs over approximately 40 years were investigated using summer flight records from ten sites along an elevational transect in Northern California. Multiple weather variables were examined, including local and regional temperature and precipitation. Population trends from the ten focal sites and a subset of western overwintering sites were compared to summer and overwintering data from the eastern migration. Records showed western overwintering grounds and western breeding grounds had negative trends over time, with declines concentrated early in the breeding season, which were potentially more severe than in the eastern population. Temporal variation in the western monarch also appears to be largely independent of (uncorrelated with) the dynamics in the east. For our focal sites, warmer temperatures had positive effects during winter and spring, and precipitation had a positive effect during spring. These climatic associations add to our understanding of biotic-abiotic interactions in a migratory butterfly, but shifting climatic conditions do not explain the overall, long-term, negative population trajectory observed in our data.
              Cover page: Understanding a migratory species in a changing world: climatic effects and demographic declines in the western monarch revealed by four decades of intensive monitoring
              • Article
              • Peer Reviewed
              UC Davis Previously Published Works (2019)
              Certain general facets of biotic response to climate change, such as shifts in phenology and geographic distribution, are well characterized; however, it is not clear whether the observed similarity of responses across taxa will extend to variation in other population-level processes. We examined population response to climatic variation using long-term incidence data (collected over 42 years) encompassing 149 butterfly species and considerable habitat diversity (10 sites along an elevational gradient from sea level to over 2,700 m in California). Population responses were characterized by extreme heterogeneity that was not attributable to differences in species composition among sites. These results indicate that habitat heterogeneity might be a buffer against climate change and highlight important questions about mechanisms maintaining interpopulation differences in responses to weather. Despite overall heterogeneity of response, population dynamics were accurately predicted by our model for many species at each site. However, the overall correlation between observed and predicted incidence in a cross validation analysis was moderate (Pearson's r = 0.23, SE 0.01), and 97% of observed data fell within the predicted 95% credible intervals. Prediction was most successful for more abundant species as well as for sites with lower annual turnover. Population-level heterogeneity in response to climate variation and the limits of our predictive power highlight the challenges for a future of increasing climatic variability.
                Cover page: Extreme heterogeneity of population response to climatic variation and the limits of prediction
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