Background

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted Alzheimer disease randomized clinical trials (RCTs), forcing investigators to make changes in the conduct of such trials while endeavoring to maintain their validity. Changing ongoing RCTs carries risks for biases and threats to validity. To understand the impact of exigent modifications due to COVID-19, we examined several scenarios in symptomatic and disease modification trials that could be made.

Methods

We identified both symptomatic and disease modification Alzheimer disease RCTs as exemplars of those that would be affected by the pandemic and considered the types of changes that sponsors could make to each. We modeled three scenarios for each of the types of trials using existing datasets, adjusting enrollment, follow-ups, and dropouts to examine the potential effects COVID-19-related changes. Simulations were performed that accounted for completion and dropout patterns using linear mixed effects models, modeling time as continuous and categorical. The statistical power of the scenarios was determined.

Results

Truncating both symptomatic and disease modification trials led to underpowered trials. By contrast, adapting the trials by extending the treatment period, temporarily stopping treatment, delaying outcomes assessments, and performing remote assessment allowed for increased statistical power nearly to the level originally planned.

Discussion

These analyses support the idea that disrupted trials under common scenarios are better continued and extended even in the face of dropouts, treatment disruptions, missing outcomes, and other exigencies and that adaptations can be made that maintain the trials' validity. We suggest some adaptive methods to do this noting that some changes become under-powered to detect the original effect sizes and expected outcomes. These analyses provide insight to better plan trials that are resilient to unexpected changes to the medical, social, and political milieu.

Introduction

Effective strategies to recruit older adults with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) into nonpharmacological intervention trials are lacking.

Methods

Recruitment for EXERT, a multisite randomized controlled 18-month trial examining the effects of aerobic exercise on cognitive trajectory in adults with amnestic MCI, involved a diverse portfolio of strategies to enroll 296 participants.

Results

Recruitment occurred September 2016 through March 2020 and was initially slow. After mass mailings of 490,323 age- and geo-targeted infographic postcards and brochures, recruitment rates increased substantially, peaking at 16 randomizations/month in early 2020. Mass mailings accounted for 52% of randomized participants, whereas 25% were recruited from memory clinic rosters, electronic health records, and national and local registries. Other sources included news broadcasts, public service announcements (PSA), local advertising, and community presentations.

Discussion

Age- and geo-targeted mass mailing of infographic materials was the most effective approach in recruiting older adults with amnestic MCI into an 18-month exercise trial.