Recent developments in protein design rely on large neural networks with up to 100s of millions of parameters, yet it is unclear which residue dependencies are critical for determining protein function. Here, we show that amino acid preferences at individual residues-without accounting for mutation interactions-explain much and sometimes virtually all of the combinatorial mutation effects across 8 datasets (R2 ~ 78-98%). Hence, few observations (~100 times the number of mutated residues) enable accurate prediction of held-out variant effects (Pearson r > 0.80). We hypothesized that the local structural contexts around a residue could be sufficient to predict mutation preferences, and develop an unsupervised approach termed CoVES (Combinatorial Variant Effects from Structure). Our results suggest that CoVES outperforms not just model-free methods but also similarly to complex models for creating functional and diverse protein variants. CoVES offers an effective alternative to complicated models for identifying functional protein mutations.

Antibodies are essential biological research tools and important therapeutic agents, but some exhibit non-specific binding to off-target proteins and other biomolecules. Such polyreactive antibodies compromise screening pipelines, lead to incorrect and irreproducible experimental results, and are generally intractable for clinical development. Here, we design a set of experiments using a diverse naïve synthetic camelid antibody fragment (nanobody) library to enable machine learning models to accurately assess polyreactivity from protein sequence (AUC > 0.8). Moreover, our models provide quantitative scoring metrics that predict the effect of amino acid substitutions on polyreactivity. We experimentally test our models' performance on three independent nanobody scaffolds, where over 90% of predicted substitutions successfully reduced polyreactivity. Importantly, the models allow us to diminish the polyreactivity of an angiotensin II type I receptor antagonist nanobody, without compromising its functional properties. We provide a companion web-server that offers a straightforward means of predicting polyreactivity and polyreactivity-reducing mutations for any given nanobody sequence.