Background

In response to the COVID-19 pandemic, San Francisco County (SFC) had to shift many nonemergency health care resources to COVID-19, reducing HIV control resources. We sought to quantify COVID-19 effects on HIV burden among men who have sex with men (MSM) as SFC returns to pre-COVID service levels and progresses toward the Ending the HIV Epidemic (EHE) goals.

Setting

Microsimulation model of MSM in SFC tracking HIV progression and treatment.

Methods

Scenario analysis where services affected by COVID-19 [testing, care engagement, pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) uptake, and retention] return to pre-COVID levels by the end of 2022 or 2025, compared against a counterfactual where COVID-19 changes never occurred. We also examined scenarios where resources are prioritized to reach new patients or retain of existing patients from 2023 to 2025 before all services return to pre-COVID levels.

Results

The annual number of MSM prescribed PrEP, newly acquired HIV, newly diagnosed, and achieving viral load suppression (VLS) rebound quickly after HIV care returns to pre-COVID levels. However, COVID-19 service disruptions result in measurable reductions in cumulative PrEP use, VLS person-years, incidence, and an increase in deaths over the 2020-2035 period. The burden is statistically significantly larger if these effects end in 2025 instead of 2022. Prioritizing HIV care/prevention initiation over retention results in more person-years of PrEP but less VLS person-years and more deaths, influencing EHE PrEP outcomes.

Conclusions

Earlier HIV care return to pre-COVID levels results in lower cumulative HIV burdens. Resource prioritization decisions may differentially affect different EHE goals.

Background

Pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) is essential to ending HIV. Yet, uptake remains uneven across racial and ethnic groups. We aimed to estimate the impacts of alternative PrEP implementation strategies in Los Angeles County.

Setting

Men who have sex with men, residing in Los Angeles County.

Methods

We developed a microsimulation model of HIV transmission, with inputs from key local stakeholders. With this model, we estimated the 15-year (2021-2035) health and racial and ethnic equity impacts of 3 PrEP implementation strategies involving coverage with 9000 additional PrEP units annually, above the Status-quo coverage level. Strategies included PrEP allocation equally (strategy 1), proportionally to HIV prevalence (strategy 2), and proportionally to HIV diagnosis rates (strategy 3), across racial and ethnic groups. We measured the degree of relative equalities in the distribution of the health impacts using the Gini index (G) which ranges from 0 (perfect equality, with all individuals across all groups receiving equal health benefits) to 1 (total inequality).

Results

HIV prevalence was 21.3% in 2021 [Black (BMSM), 31.1%; Latino (LMSM), 18.3%, and White (WMSM), 20.7%] with relatively equal to reasonable distribution across groups (G, 0.28; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26 to 0.34). During 2021-2035, cumulative incident infections were highest under Status-quo (n = 24,584) and lowest under strategy 3 (n = 22,080). Status-quo infection risk declined over time among all groups but remained higher in 2035 for BMSM (incidence rate ratio, 4.76; 95% CI: 4.58 to 4.95), and LMSM (incidence rate ratio, 1.74; 95% CI: 1.69 to 1.80), with the health benefits equally to reasonably distributed across groups (G, 0.32; 95% CI: 0.28 to 0.35). Relative to Status-quo, all other strategies reduced BMSM-WMSM and BMSM-LMSM disparities, but none reduced LMSM-WMSM disparities by 2035. Compared to Status-quo, strategy 3 reduced the most both incident infections (% infections averted: overall, 10.2%; BMSM, 32.4%; LMSM, 3.8%; WMSM, 3.5%) and HIV racial inequalities (G reduction, 0.08; 95% CI: 0.02 to 0.14).

Conclusions

Microsimulation models developed with early, continuous stakeholder engagement and inputs yield powerful tools to guide policy implementation.

Racial and ethnic minority men who have sex with men (MSM) are disproportionately affected by HIV/AIDS in Los Angeles County (LAC), an important epicenter in the battle to end HIV. We examine tradeoffs between effectiveness and equality of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) allocation strategies among different racial and ethnic groups of MSM in LAC and provide a framework for quantitatively evaluating disparities in HIV outcomes. To do this, we developed a microsimulation model of HIV among MSM in LAC using county epidemic surveillance and survey data to capture demographic trends and subgroup-specific partnership patterns, disease progression, patterns of PrEP use, and patterns for viral suppression. We limit analysis to MSM, who bear most of the burden of HIV/AIDS in LAC. We simulated interventions where 3000, 6000, or 9000 PrEP prescriptions are provided annually in addition to current levels, following different allocation scenarios to each racial/ethnic group (Black, Hispanic, or White). We estimated cumulative infections averted and measures of equality, after 15 years (2021-2035), relative to base case (no intervention). By comparing allocation strategies on the health equality impact plane, we find that, of the policies evaluated, targeting PrEP preferentially to Black individuals would result in the largest reductions in incidence and disparities across the equality measures we considered. This result was consistent over a range of PrEP coverage levels, demonstrating that there are "win-win" PrEP allocation strategies that do not require a tradeoff between equality and efficiency.