Evolutionary forces shape patterns of genetic diversity within populations and contribute to phenotypic variation. In particular, recurrent positive selection has attracted significant interest in both theoretical and empirical studies. However, most existing theoretical models of recurrent positive selection cannot easily incorporate realistic confounding effects such as interference between selected sites, arbitrary selection schemes, and complicated demographic processes. It is possible to quantify the effects of arbitrarily complex evolutionary models by performing forward population genetic simulations, but forward simulations can be computationally prohibitive for large population sizes (>10(5)). A common approach for overcoming these computational limitations is rescaling of the most computationally expensive parameters, especially population size. Here, we show that ad hoc approaches to parameter rescaling under the recurrent hitchhiking model do not always provide sufficiently accurate dynamics, potentially skewing patterns of diversity in simulated DNA sequences. We derive an extension of the recurrent hitchhiking model that is appropriate for strong selection in small population sizes and use it to develop a method for parameter rescaling that provides the best possible computational performance for a given error tolerance. We perform a detailed theoretical analysis of the robustness of rescaling across the parameter space. Finally, we apply our rescaling algorithms to parameters that were previously inferred for Drosophila and discuss practical considerations such as interference between selected sites.

Selection and mutation shape the genetic variation underlying human traits, but the specific evolutionary mechanisms driving complex trait variation are largely unknown. We developed a statistical method that uses polarized genome-wide association study (GWAS) summary statistics from a single population to detect signals of mutational bias and selection. We found evidence for nonneutral signals on variation underlying several traits (body mass index [BMI], schizophrenia, Crohn's disease, educational attainment, and height). We then used simulations that incorporate simultaneous negative and positive selection to show that these signals are consistent with mutational bias and shifts in the fitness-phenotype relationship, but not stabilizing selection or mutational bias alone. We additionally replicate two of our top three signals (BMI and educational attainment) in an external cohort, and show that population stratification may have confounded GWAS summary statistics for height in the GIANT cohort. Our results provide a flexible and powerful framework for evolutionary analysis of complex phenotypes in humans and other species, and offer insights into the evolutionary mechanisms driving variation in human polygenic traits.

Objectives

Identifying drivers of complex traits from the noisy signals of genetic variation obtained from high-throughput genome sequencing technologies is a central challenge faced by human geneticists today. We hypothesize that the variants involved in complex diseases are likely to exhibit non-neutral evolutionary signatures. Uncovering the evolutionary history of all variants is therefore of intrinsic interest for complex disease research. However, doing so necessitates the simultaneous elucidation of the targets of natural selection and population-specific demographic history.

Methods

Here we characterize the action of natural selection operating across complex disease categories, and use population genetic simulations to evaluate the expected patterns of genetic variation in large samples. We focus on populations that have experienced historical bottlenecks followed by explosive growth (consistent with many human populations), and describe the differences between evolutionarily deleterious mutations and those that are neutral.

Results

Genes associated with several complex disease categories exhibit stronger signatures of purifying selection than non-disease genes. In addition, loci identified through genome-wide association studies of complex traits also exhibit signatures consistent with being in regions recurrently targeted by purifying selection. Through simulations, we show that population bottlenecks and rapid growth enable deleterious rare variants to persist at low frequencies just as long as neutral variants, but low-frequency and common variants tend to be much younger than neutral variants. This has resulted in a large proportion of modern-day rare alleles that have a deleterious effect on function and that potentially contribute to disease susceptibility.

Conclusions

The key question for sequencing-based association studies of complex traits is how to distinguish between deleterious and benign genetic variation. We used population genetic simulations to uncover patterns of genetic variation that distinguish these two categories, especially derived allele age, thereby providing inroads into novel methods for characterizing rare genetic variation driving complex diseases.

The vast majority of human mutations have minor allele frequencies under 1%, with the plurality observed only once (that is, 'singletons'). While Mendelian diseases are predominantly caused by rare alleles, their cumulative contribution to complex phenotypes is largely unknown. We develop and rigorously validate an approach to jointly estimate the contribution of all alleles, including singletons, to phenotypic variation. We apply our approach to transcriptional regulation, an intermediate between genetic variation and complex disease. Using whole-genome DNA and lymphoblastoid cell line RNA sequencing data from 360 European individuals, we conservatively estimate that singletons contribute approximately 25% of cis heritability across genes (dwarfing the contributions of other frequencies). The majority (approximately 76%) of singleton heritability derives from ultrarare variants absent from thousands of additional samples. We develop an inference procedure to demonstrate that our results are consistent with pervasive purifying selection shaping the regulatory architecture of most human genes.

Demographic events and natural selection alter patterns of genetic variation within populations and may play a substantial role in shaping the genetic architecture of complex phenotypes and disease. However, the joint impact of these basic evolutionary forces is often ignored in the assessment of statistical tests of association. Here, we provide a simulation-based framework for generating DNA sequences that incorporates selection and demography with flexible models for simulating phenotypic variation (sfs_coder). This tool also allows the user to perform locus-specific simulations by automatically querying annotated genomic functional elements and genetic maps. We demonstrate the effects of evolutionary forces on patterns of genetic variation by simulating recently inferred models of human selection and demography. We use these simulations to show that the demographic model and locus-specific features, such as the proportion of sites under selection, may have practical implications for estimating the statistical power of sequencing-based rare variant association tests. In particular, for some phenotype models, there may be higher power to detect rare variant associations in African populations compared to non-Africans, but power is considerably reduced in regions of the genome with rampant negative selection. Furthermore, we show that existing methods for simulating large samples based on resampling from a small set of observed haplotypes fail to recapitulate the distribution of rare variants in the presence of rapid population growth (as has been observed in several human populations).

The role of rare alleles in complex phenotypes has been hotly debated, but most rare variant association tests (RVATs) do not account for the evolutionary forces that affect genetic architecture. Here, we use simulation and numerical algorithms to show that explosive population growth, as experienced by human populations, can dramatically increase the impact of very rare alleles on trait variance. We then assess the ability of RVATs to detect causal loci using simulations and human RNA-seq data. Surprisingly, we find that statistical performance is worst for phenotypes in which genetic variance is due mainly to rare alleles, and explosive population growth decreases power. Although many studies have attempted to identify causal rare variants, few have reported novel associations. This has sometimes been interpreted to mean that rare variants make negligible contributions to complex trait heritability. Our work shows that RVATs are not robust to realistic human evolutionary forces, so general conclusions about the impact of rare variants on complex traits may be premature.

ABSTRACT

The vast majority of human mutations have minor allele frequencies (MAF) under 1%, with the plurality observed only once (i.e., “singletons”). While Mendelian diseases are predominantly caused by rare alleles, their cumulative contribution to complex phenotypes remains largely unknown. We develop and rigorously validate an approach to jointly estimate the contribution of all alleles, including singletons, to phenotypic variation. We apply our approach to transcriptional regulation, an intermediate between genetic variation and complex disease. Using whole genome DNA and lymphoblastoid cell line RNA sequencing data from 360 European individuals, we conservatively estimate that singletons contribute ~25% of cis -heritability across genes (dwarfing the contributions of other frequencies). Strikingly, the majority (~76%) of singleton heritability derives from ultra-rare variants absent from thousands of additional samples. We develop a novel inference procedure to demonstrate that our results are consistent with rampant purifying selection shaping the regulatory architecture of most human genes.

Background

Asthma is a common but complex disease with racial/ethnic differences in prevalence, morbidity, and response to therapies.

Objective

We sought to perform an analysis of genetic ancestry to identify new loci that contribute to asthma susceptibility.

Methods

We leveraged the mixed ancestry of 3902 Latinos and performed an admixture mapping meta-analysis for asthma susceptibility. We replicated associations in an independent study of 3774 Latinos, performed targeted sequencing for fine mapping, and tested for disease correlations with gene expression in the whole blood of more than 500 subjects from 3 racial/ethnic groups.

Results

We identified a genome-wide significant admixture mapping peak at 18q21 in Latinos (P = 6.8 × 10^-6), where Native American ancestry was associated with increased risk of asthma (odds ratio [OR], 1.20; 95% CI, 1.07-1.34; P = .002) and European ancestry was associated with protection (OR, 0.86; 95% CI, 0.77-0.96; P = .008). Our findings were replicated in an independent childhood asthma study in Latinos (P = 5.3 × 10^-3, combined P = 2.6 × 10^-7). Fine mapping of 18q21 in 1978 Latinos identified a significant association with multiple variants 5' of SMAD family member 2 (SMAD2) in Mexicans, whereas a single rare variant in the same window was the top association in Puerto Ricans. Low versus high SMAD2 blood expression was correlated with case status (13.4% lower expression; OR, 3.93; 95% CI, 2.12-7.28; P < .001). In addition, lower expression of SMAD2 was associated with more frequent exacerbations among Puerto Ricans with asthma.

Conclusion

Ancestry at 18q21 was significantly associated with asthma in Latinos and implicated multiple ancestry-informative noncoding variants upstream of SMAD2 with asthma susceptibility. Furthermore, decreased SMAD2 expression in blood was strongly associated with increased asthma risk and increased exacerbations.