Background

Previous studies have found that overestimating treatment effects (i.e. 'optimism bias') leads to underpowered clinical trials. The prevalence of 'optimism bias' in contemporary National Clinical Trials Network (NCTN) cancer clinical trials is unknown.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review of NCTN phase III randomized trials published from January 2007 to January 2017. We compared the hypothesized versus observed treatment effects in each trial, and examined whether trial-related factors were correlated with the study results. We also reviewed the methods of each protocol to assess whether a rationale for the hypothesized effect size was provided.

Results

We identified 161 clinical trials, of which 130 were eligible for analysis. Original protocols could not be located for 8 trials (5.0%). Twenty-eight trials (21.5%) observed a statistically significant difference in the primary end point favoring the experimental treatment. The median ratio of observed-to-expected hazard ratios among trials that observed a statistically significant effect on the primary end point was 1.07 (range: 0.33-1.28) versus 1.32 (range: 0.86-2.02) for trials that did not, compared with 1.34 and 1.86, respectively, for National Cancer Institute (NCI) trials published between 1955 and 2006. An effect size at least as large as the one projected in the protocol trials was observed in 9.8% of trials, compared with 17% of NCI trials published from 1955 to 2006. Most trials (64.6%) provided no rationale to support the magnitude of the proposed treatment effect in the protocol.

Conclusions

Despite a reduction in 'optimism bias' compared with previous eras, most contemporary NCTN phase III trials failed to establish statistically significant benefits of new cancer therapies. Better rationalization of proposed effect sizes in research protocols is needed.

BACKGROUND: Hope is correlated with quality of life and overall survivorship among patients with cancer. We aimed to identify sociodemographic and clinical determinants of hope among patients with gastrointestinal (GI) cancer. METHODS: Patients with GI cancer seen in radiation oncology between 10/2022 and 6/2023 were surveyed with the Adult Hope Scale (AHS) questionnaire, which assesses hope based on goal-setting and goal-striving beliefs. Linear regression and Pearsons/Spearmans correlation coefficients were used to evaluate associations between AHS scores and demographic or disease variables. RESULTS: One-hundred and forty-five (71.1% response rate) patients were included in the analysis. Most (75%) patients were symptomatic from disease, and Asian American and Pacific Islander (AAPI) patients accounted for 30.3% of our cohort. Identifying as AAPI or needing an interpreter for clinic visits was significantly associated with lower AHS scores, and more AAPI patients required interpreter assistance compared to non-AAPI patients (P=0.04). Being divorced, unemployed, or female was also linked to less hope. No other differences in hope were found. CONCLUSIONS: Sociodemographic rather than prognostic clinical factors were predictive of hope among patients with GI cancer. Interventions to contextualize psychosocial risk factors have the potential to improve quality of life and oncologic outcomes.

Background

There is limited research on how the opioid epidemic and consequent risk reduction policies have affected pain management among cancer patients. The purpose of this study was to analyze how the Opioid Safety Initiative (OSI) implemented at the Veterans Health Administration affected opioid prescribing patterns and opioid-related toxicity.

Methods

We performed an interrupted time series analysis of 42 064 opioid-naïve patients treated at the Veterans Health Administration for prostate, lung, breast, and colorectal cancer from 2011 to 2016. Segmented regression was used to evaluate the impact of the OSI on the incidence of any new opioid prescriptions, high-risk prescriptions, persistent use, and pain-related emergency department (ED) visits. We compared the cumulative incidence of adverse opioid events including an opioid-related admission or diagnosis of misuse before and after the OSI. All statistical tests were 2-sided.

Results

The incidence of new opioid prescriptions was 26.7% (95% confidence interval [CI] = 25.0% to 28.4%) in 2011 and increased to 50.6% (95% CI = 48.3% to 53.0%) by 2013 before OSI implementation (monthly rate of change: +3.3%, 95% CI = 1.3% to 4.2%, P < .001). After the OSI, there was a decrease in the monthly rate of change for new prescriptions (-3.4%, 95% CI = -3.9 to -2.9%, P < .001). The implementation of the OSI was associated with a decrease in the monthly rate of change of concomitant benzodiazepines and opioid prescriptions (-2.5%, 95% CI = -3.2% to -1.8%, P < .001), no statistically significant change in high-dose opioids (-1.2%, 95% CI = -3.2% to 0.9%, P = .26), a decrease in persistent opioid use (-5.7%, 95% CI = -6.8% to -4.7%, P < .001), and an increase in pain-related ED visits (+3.0%, 95% CI = 1.0% to 5.0%, P = .003). The OSI was associated with a decreased incidence of opioid-related admissions (3-year cumulative incidence: 0.9% [95% CI = 0.7% to 1.0%] vs 0.5% [95% CI = 0.4% to 0.6%], P < .001) and no statistically significant change in the incidence of opioid misuse (3-year cumulative incidence: 1.2% [95% CI = 1.0% to 1.3%] vs 1.2% [95% CI = 1.1% to 1.4%], P = .77).

Conclusions

The OSI was associated with a relative decline in the rate of new, persistent, and certain high-risk opioid prescribing as well as a slight increase in the rate of pain-related ED visits. Further research on patient-centered outcomes is required to optimize opioid prescribing policies for patients with cancer.

Purpose

Generalized competing event (GCE) models improve stratification of patients according to their risk of cancer events relative to competing causes of mortality. The potential impact of such methods on clinical trial power and cost, however, is uncertain. We sought to test the hypothesis that GCE models can reduce estimated clinical trial cost in elderly patients with cancer.

Methods

Patients with nonmetastatic head and neck (n = 9,677), breast (n = 22,929), or prostate cancer (n = 51,713) were sampled from the SEER-Medicare database. Using multivariable Cox proportional hazards models, we compared risk scores for all-cause mortality (ACM) and cancer-specific mortality (CSM) with GCE-based risk scores for each disease. We applied a cost function to estimate the cost and duration of clinical trials with a primary end point of overall survival in each population and in high-risk subpopulations. We conducted sensitivity analyses to examine model uncertainty.

Results

For the purpose of enriching subpopulations, GCE models reduced estimated clinical trial cost compared with Cox models of ACM and CSM in all disease sites. The relative cost reductions with GCE models compared with ACM and CSM models, respectively, were -68.4% and -14.4% in prostate cancer, -38.8% and -18.3% in breast cancer, and -17.1% and -4.1% in head and neck cancer. Cost savings in breast and prostate cancers were on the order of millions of dollars. The GCE model also reduced relative clinical trial duration compared with CSM and ACM models for all disease sites. The optimal risk score cutoff for clinical trial enrollment occurred near the top tertile for all disease sites.

Conclusion

GCE models have significant potential to improve clinical trial efficiency and reduce cost, with a potentially large impact in prostate and breast cancers.

Purpose: The first clinical biology-guided radiation therapy (BgRT) system-RefleXion^TM X1-was installed and commissioned for clinical use at our institution. This study aimed at evaluating the treatment plan quality and delivery efficiency for IMRT/SBRT cases without PET guidance. Methods: A total of 42 patient plans across 6 cancer sites (conventionally fractionated lung, head, and neck, anus, prostate, brain, and lung SBRT) planned with the Eclipse^TM treatment planning system (TPS) and treated with either a TrueBeam^® or Trilogy^® were selected for this retrospective study. For each Eclipse VMAT plan, 2 corresponding plans were generated on the X1 TPS with 10 mm jaws (X1-10mm) and 20 mm jaws (X1-20mm) using our institutional planning constraints. All clinically relevant metrics in this study, including PTV D95%, PTV D2%, Conformity Index (CI), R50, organs-at-risk (OAR) constraints, and beam-on time were analyzed and compared between 126 VMAT and RefleXion plans using paired t-tests. Results: All but 3 planning metrics were either equivalent or superior for the X1-10mm plans as compared to the Eclipse VMAT plans across all planning sites investigated. The Eclipse VMAT and X1-10mm plans generally achieved superior plan quality and sharper dose fall-off superior/inferior to targets as compared to the X1-20mm plans, however, the X1-20mm plans were still considered acceptable for treatment. On average, the required beam-on time increased by a factor of 1.6 across all sites for X1-10mm compared to X1-20mm plans. Conclusions: Clinically acceptable IMRT/SBRT treatment plans were generated with the X1 TPS for both the 10 mm and 20 mm jaw settings.

Background

Image guidance in radiation oncology has resulted in significant improvements in the accuracy and precision of radiation therapy (RT). Recently, the resolution and quality of cone beam computed tomography (CBCT) for image guidance has increased so that tumor masses and lymph nodes are readily detectable and measurable. During treatment of head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC), on-board CBCT setup imaging is routinely obtained; however, this CBCT imaging data is not utilized to predict patient outcomes. Here, we analyzed whether changes in CBCT measurements obtained during a course of radiation therapy correlate with responses on routine 3-month follow-up diagnostic imaging and overall survival (OS).

Materials/methods

Patients with oropharyngeal primary tumors who received radiation therapy between 2015 and 2018 were included. Anatomical measurements were collected of largest nodal conglomerate (LNC) at CT simulation, end of radiation treatment (EOT CBCT), and routine 3-month post-RT imaging. At each timepoint anteroposterior (AP), mediolateral (ML) and craniocaudal (CC) measurements were obtained and used to create a 2-dimensional (2D) maximum.

Results

CBCT data from 64 node positive patients were analyzed. The largest nodal 2D maximum and CC measurements on EOT CBCT showed a statistically significant correlation with complete response on 3-month post-RT imaging (r = 0.313, p = 0.02 and r = 0.318, p = 0.02, respectively). Furthermore, patients who experienced a 30% or greater reduction in the CC dimension had improved OS (Binary Chi-Square HR 4.85, p = 0.028).

Conclusion

Decreased size of pathologic lymph nodes measured using CBCT setup imaging during a radiation course correlates with long term therapeutic response and overall survival of HNSCC patients. These results indicate that CBCT setup imaging may have utility as an early predictor of treatment response in oropharyngeal HNSCC.

Background

Previous studies have reported conflicting information regarding the prognostic role of p16 in nonoropharyngeal head and neck squamous cell carcinoma (HNSCC).

Methods

Using the US Veterans Affairs database, we analyzed 1448 patients with locoregionally advanced HNSCC and known p16 status diagnosed between 2005 and 2015 and treated with surgery, radiotherapy, or chemoradiotherapy. Tumor p16 status was determined through manual review of pathology reports of primary tumor specimens. Oropharyngeal (n = 1061) or nonoropharyngeal (n = 387; hypopharyngeal, laryngeal, or oral cavity) tumor site was determined from tumor registry data and manually reviewed for accuracy. We used multivariable Cox regression to analyze the effect of p16 status on overall survival (OS), cancer-specific survival (CSS), and competing mortality (CM) for oropharyngeal or nonoropharyngeal tumor sites. All statistical tests were two-sided.

Results

In multivariable models adjusting for treatment, stage, age, comorbidity, and body mass index, patients with p16-positive tumors had improved OS, CSS, and CM compared with patients with p16-negative tumors in both oropharyngeal (OS: hazard ratio [HR] = 0.53, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.40 to 0.71, P < .001; CSS: HR = 0.50, 95% CI = 0.35 to 0.73, P < .001; CM: HR = 0.59, 95% CI = 0.38 to 0.93, P = .02) and nonoropharyngeal primary sites (OS: HR = 0.41, 95% CI = 0.25 to 0.69, P < .001; CSS: HR = 0.37, 95% CI = 0.18 to 0.77, P = .008; CM: HR = 0.46, 95% CI = 0.23 to 0.95, P = .04). The prognostic impact of p16 status did not statistically significantly differ by primary tumor site for OS, CSS, or CM (Pinteraction > .05).

Conclusions

Our findings support the hypothesis that p16 has a similar prognostic role in both nonoropharyngeal and oropharyngeal cancer. Consideration should be given to increased testing for p16 in laryngeal, hypopharyngeal, and oral cavity primaries.

Purpose

Comorbidity is an independent predictor of mortality and treatment tolerance in head and neck cancer and should be considered with regard to treatment intensification. Multiple previously validated models can be used to evaluate comorbidity and propensity to benefit from intensive treatment, but they have not been directly compared.

Materials and methods

An online tool was developed and used to calculate the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI), Adult Comorbidity Evaluation-27 (ACE-27), Cumulative Illness Rating Scale for Geriatrics (CIRS-G), Geriatric 8 (G8), Cancer and Aging Research Group (CARG), and Generalized Competing Event (GCE) scores. To assess interrater variability, five evaluators independently calculated scores on a retrospective cohort of 20 patients. Correlation between models as well as age and performance status were calculated from a cohort of 40 patients.

Results

The GCE and G8 models had an excellent (intraclass correlation coefficient and Fleiss' kappa ≥ 0.75) degree of interrater agreement. The CCI, ACE-27, CIRS-G, and CARG had a good (intraclass correlation coefficient and Fleiss' kappa 0.6-0.74) degree of interrater agreement. There was statistically significant correlation between models, especially with the CCI, ACE-27, and CIRS-G indices. Increased age was correlated with an increased CCI score and having moderate to severe comorbidity was correlated with the ACE-27 model. Except for the G8 model, the comorbidity indices were not associated with Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status.

Conclusion

We developed an online tool to calculate indices of comorbidity in patients with head and neck cancer with a high degree of reproducibility. Comorbidity is not strongly correlated with performance status and should be independently evaluated in patients.

Purpose

Older patients undergoing radiation therapy (RT) for pelvic malignancies are at increased risk for pelvic fracture, which is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. RT techniques such as brachytherapy or intensity modulated RT (IMRT) allow for more conformal dose distributions, but it is not known whether the risk for pelvic fracture varies by RT modality.

Methods and materials

This observational cohort study involved 28,354 patients ≥65 years old, treated with RT for pelvic malignancies. We evaluated the relative risk of pelvic fracture by type of RT when accounting for baseline factors. To test for nonspecific effects, we also evaluated risk of nonpelvic fractures in the same population.

Results

The 5-year incidence of pelvic fractures was 12.7% (95% confidence interval [CI], 11.6%-13.8%), 11.8% (10.8%-12.8%), and 3.7% (3.4%-4.0%) for patients with gastrointestinal, gynecologic, and prostate cancer, respectively. On multivariable analysis, being treated with IMRT (hazard ratio, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.73-0.99) or brachytherapy therapy alone (hazard ratio, 0.43; 95% CI, 0.34-0.54) was associated with a reduced hazard for pelvic fractures compared with 3D conformal radiation therapy in female patients. In contrast, there was no association with RT modality and the hazard for nonpelvic fractures among females. There was no significant association between pelvic fractures and IMRT or brachytherapy for male patients. White race, advanced age, and higher comorbidity were associated with an increased hazard for pelvic fracture.

Conclusions

IMRT and brachytherapy were associated with a reduced risk of pelvic fractures in older women undergoing RT for pelvic malignancies. Pelvic insufficiency fracture risk should be considered when treating with pelvic RT.