- Cui, Ryna;
- Hultman, Nathan;
- Cui, Diyang;
- McJeon, Haewon;
- Yu, Sha;
- Edwards, Morgan;
- Sen, Arijit;
- Song, Kaihui;
- Bowman, Christina;
- Clarke, Leon;
- Kang, Junjie;
- Lou, Jiehong;
- Yang, Fuqiang;
- Yuan, Jiahai;
- Zhang, Weirong;
- Zhu, Mengye
More than half of current coal power capacity is in China. A key strategy for meeting Chinas 2060 carbon neutrality goal and the global 1.5 °C climate goal is to rapidly shift away from unabated coal use. Here we detail how to structure a high-ambition coal phaseout in China while balancing multiple national needs. We evaluate the 1037 currently operating coal plants based on comprehensive technical, economic and environmental criteria and develop a metric for prioritizing plants for early retirement. We find that 18% of plants consistently score poorly across all three criteria and are thus low-hanging fruits for rapid retirement. We develop plant-by-plant phaseout strategies for each province by combining our retirement algorithm with an integrated assessment model. With rapid retirement of the low-hanging fruits, other existing plants can operate with a 20- or 30-year minimum lifetime and gradually reduced utilization to achieve the 1.5 °C or well-below 2 °C climate goals, respectively, with complete phaseout by 2045 and 2055.