Successful innovation is essential for the survival and growth of organizations, but how best to incentivize innovation is poorly understood. We compare how two common incentive schemes affect innovative performance in a field experiment run in partnership with a large life sciences company. We find that a winner-takes-all compensation scheme generates significantly more novel innovation relative to a compensation scheme that offers the same total compensation but shares it across the ten best innovations. Moreover, the winner-takes-all scheme does not reduce innovative output on average and, among teams of innovators, generates more output than the less risky prize structure.

Workers trained in STEM are generally viewed as essential for innovation-led economic growth. Yet, recent statistics suggest that a majority of STEM undergraduates do not go on to pursue innovation-focused careers in their fields of study. We investigate whether STEM students who do not self-select into innovative tasks are doing so because they are less capable than their peers who do. We find that monetary inducement among STEM students increases aggregate innovative output, but that low-GPA students who were induced significantly underperform relative to low-GPA students who self-selected; however, induced and self-selected high-GPA students perform statistically the same. In contrast, words of encouragement appears to benefit those students with the lowest GPAs. Our results highlight the value of efforts to increase the pool of STEM students who pursue innovative careers and underscore the importance of interventions targeted at specific student subgroups to maximize the returns on those efforts.

Rationale

Little is known about the long-term effects of air pollution exposure and the root causes of asthma. We use exposure to intense air pollution from the 1952 Great Smog of London as a natural experiment to examine both issues.

Objectives

To determine whether exposure to extreme air pollution in utero or soon after birth affects asthma development later in life.

Methods

This was a natural experiment using the unanticipated pollution event by comparing the prevalence of asthma between those exposed to the Great Smog in utero or the first year of life with those conceived well before or after the incident and those residing outside the affected area at the time of the smog.

Measurements and main results

Prevalence of asthma during childhood (ages 0-15) and adulthood (ages >15) is analyzed for 2,916 respondents to the Life History portion of the English Longitudinal Study on Aging born from 1945 to 1955. Exposure to the Great Smog in the first year of life increases the likelihood of childhood asthma by 19.87 percentage points (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.37-36.38). We also find suggestive evidence that early-life exposure led to a 9.53 percentage point increase (95% CI, -4.85 to 23.91) in the likelihood of adult asthma and exposure in utero led to a 7.91 percentage point increase (95% CI, -2.39 to 18.20) in the likelihood of childhood asthma.

Conclusions

These results are the first to link early-life pollution exposure to later development of asthma using a natural experiment, suggesting the legacy of the Great Smog is ongoing.

This paper provides estimates of the effects of in utero exposure to contaminated drinking water on fetal health. To do this, we examine the universe of birth records and drinking water testing results for the state of New Jersey from 1997 to 2007. Our data enable us to compare outcomes across siblings who were potentially exposed to differing levels of harmful contaminants from drinking water while in utero. We find small effects of drinking water contamination on all children, but large and statistically significant effects on birth weight and gestation of infants born to less educated mothers. We also show that those mothers who were most affected by contamination were the least likely to move between births in response to contamination.

Animal communication signals generally evolve to become increasingly conspicuous for intended receivers [1]. However, such conspicuous signals are also more susceptible to eavesdropping, i.e. exploitation by unintended receivers [2]. It is typically thought that eavesdroppers harm signalers and select against conspicuous signals [3]. But, if signal conspicuousness deters eavesdroppers by indicating a cost, all receivers benefit. This may occur when eavesdroppers exploit food recruitment signals but need to fight for food access [4]. Using eusocial insects, stingless bees, we show that conspicuous signals can indicate competitive costs and enable signalers to escape eavesdropper-imposed costs. The dominant eavesdropper, Triogona hyalinata, avoided higher levels of Trigona spinipes pheromone that indicate a food source difficult to win, and showed attraction to lower pheromone levels that indicate a relatively undefended resource. Our decision-analysis model reveals that eavesdropping individuals that can assess takeover costs can benefit their colony by recruiting to weakly defended resources and avoiding costly takeover attempts. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

Workers in climate exposed industries such as agriculture, construction, and manufacturing face increased health risks of working on high temperature days and may make decisions to reduce work on high-heat days to mitigate this risk. Utilizing the American Time Use Survey (ATUS) for the period 2003 through 2018 and historical weather data, we model the relationship between daily temperature and time allocation, focusing on hours worked by high-risk laborers. The results indicate that labor allocation decisions are context specific and likely driven by supply-side factors. We do not find a significant relationship between temperature and hours worked during the Great Recession (2008-2014), perhaps due to high competition for employment, however during periods of economic growth (2003-2007, 2015-2018) we find a significant reduction in hours worked on high-heat days. During periods of economic growth, for every degree above 90 on a particular day, the average high-risk worker reduces their time devoted to work by about 2.6 minutes relative to a 90-degree day. This effect is expected to intensify in the future as temperatures rise. Applying the modeled relationships to climate projections through the end of century, we find that annual lost wages resulting from decreased time spent working on days over 90 degrees across the United States range from $36.7 to $80.0 billion in 2090 under intermediate and high emission futures, respectively.

Background

Needle and syringe programs (NSPs) are effective at preventing HIV and hepatitis C virus (HCV) among people who inject drugs (PWID), yet global coverage is low, partly because governments lack data on the cost and cost-effectiveness of NSP in their countries to plan and fund their responses. We conducted a global systematic review of unit costs of NSP provision to inform estimation of cost drivers and extrapolated costs to other countries.

Methods

We conducted a systematic review to extract data on the cost per syringe distributed and its cost drivers. We estimated the impact of country-level and program-level variables on the cost per syringe distributed using linear mixed-effects models. These models were used to predict unit costs of NSP provision, with the best performing model used to extrapolate the cost per syringe distributed for 137 countries. The total cost for a comprehensive NSP (200 syringes per PWID/year) was also estimated for 68 countries with PWID population size estimates.

Results

We identified 55 estimates of the unit cost per syringe distributed from 14 countries. Unit costs were extrapolated for 137 countries, ranging from $0.08 to $20.77 (2020 USD) per syringe distributed. The total estimated spend for a high-coverage, comprehensive NSP across 68 countries with PWID size estimates is $5 035 902 000 for 10 887 500 PWID, 2.1-times higher than current spend.

Conclusion

Our review identified cost estimates from high-income, upper-middle-income, and lower-middle-income countries. Regression models may be useful for estimating NSP costs in countries without data to inform HIV/HCV prevention programming and policy.