UC San Diego

American Samoa is experiencing rapid relative sea level rise due to increases in global sea level and significant post-2009 earthquake land subsidence, endangering homes and critical infrastructure. Wave and water-level observations collected over a fringing reef at Fagaitua Bay, American Samoa, in 2017 reveal depth-limited shoreline sea-swell wave heights over the range of conditions sampled. Using field data to calibrate a one-dimensional, phase-resolving nonhydrostatic wave model (SWASH), we examine the influence of water level on wave heights over the reef for a range of current and future sea levels. Assuming a fixed reef bathymetry, model results predict rising sea levels will escalate nearshore extreme water levels that are dominated by an increase in nearshore sea-swell wave heights. Model results provide insight into how and at what reef depths rising sea levels reduce reef capacity to dissipate wave energy, compounding shoreline threats. This study aims to bring increased attention to the immediate threats to American Samoas way of life, and to demonstrate the utility of SWASH for extrapolating wave transformation to future sea level.