UC Merced

Maps of Histoplasma capsulatum infection prevalence were created 50 years ago; since then, the environment, climate, and anthropogenic land use have changed drastically. Recent outbreaks of acute disease in Montana and Nebraska, USA, suggest shifts in geographic distribution, necessitating updated prevalence maps. To create a weighted overlay geographic suitability model for Histoplasma, we used a geographic information system to combine satellite imagery integrating land cover use (70%), distance to water (20%), and soil pH (10%). We used logistic regression modeling to compare our map with state-level histoplasmosis incidence data from a 5% sample from the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services. When compared with the state-based Centers data, the predictive accuracy of the suitability score-predicted states with high and mid-to-high histoplasmosis incidence was moderate. Preferred soil environments for Histoplasma have migrated into the upper Missouri River basin. Suitability score mapping may be applicable to other geographically specific infectious vectors.