UC Berkeley

Climate change is the over-arching existential threat of our time, with clear risks and mounting evidence of extreme weather events demanding urgent action. The dominant global strategy for mitigating climate change centers on low-carbon electricity generation and widespread electrification of end-uses, positioning electricity as the backbone of decarbonization. Yet, in many African nations, this vision is complicated by fundamental discontents—particularly the lack of electricity access and unreliable supply, both of which severely constrain socioeconomic development and limit opportunities for a just transition.This works dives into this tension, investigating how electricity unreliability shapes energy transition pathways in Nigeria, Africa’s largest economy by population and the country with the world’s largest energy access deficit. Using a mix of theoretical frameworks—including the dependency theory, the multi-level perspective on socio-technical transitions, the energy stacking model, and the symbolic logic of infrastructure—alongside quantitative and qualitative methods, this research provides a data-driven, theoretically grounded analysis of Nigeria’s energy transition. Motivated by an aspiration toward scholar-practitioner praxis, I engage with both academic and policy perspectives to interrogate the complexities of electrification for decarbonization in a country where unreliable power is the norm and energy access remains a persistent challenge. My work contributes to the literature and practice on energy transition in Africa, household energy decision-making, electricity access (SDG7), and the broader energy-climate-development nexus. More than an academic exercise, this dissertation represents my commitment as a young African scholar to producing rigorous, evidence-based research that centers the lived realities of those most affected.In brief:• Chapter 1: Electricity for What? Decarbonization, Development and the African Energy Dilemma—introduces the global energy transition, focusing on the “mega-trend of electrification” and its role at the nexus of climate action and development. It explores how electrification has been positioned as both a decarbonization strategy in industrialized nations and an energy access imperative in developing regions. By framing electrification as central to both climate mitigation and socioeconomic development, this chapter highlights the core tension analyzed in this dissertation—particularly the struggle in Africa to balance electrification for energy access with electrification for energy transition.• Chapter 2: Electricity for Whom? Africa’s Growth, Emissions, and the Politics of Transition—provides a data-driven examination of Africa’s historical emissions trends, development trajectories, and climate responsibilities. This chapter critically evaluates competing narratives on Africa’s role in the energy transition, highlighting the financial and technological dependencies shaping its future. These insights provide a critical empirical foundation for the rest of the dissertation, framing the analysis of national-level energy transitions.• Chapter 3: Electricity for Nigeria: Past, Present, and the Transition Ahead—explores the historical evolution of Nigeria’s electricity sector and its implications for the country’s energy transition. This chapter contextualizes Nigeria’s Energy Transition Plan (ETP), analyzing its core strategies and emerging challenges—particularly the tension between electrification for energy access and electrification for energy transition. It then interrogates the shaping role of electricity unreliability in Nigeria’s energy transition pathway, setting up the empirical analyses that follow.• Chapter 4: Electricity for the Gaps: Household Energy Transitions in an Unreliable System—examines how electricity unreliability drives decentralized fossil-fuel generation, complicating Nigeria’s renewable energy expansion. Using survey data from over 7,000 Lagos households, this chapter provides empirical evidence linking grid unreliability to genset adoption and explores economic, infrastructural, and social factors shaping household energy choices. It also investigates early solar adoption trends and the prevalence of genset-solar stacking. These findings highlight key barriers to Nigeria’s energy transition and inform strategies for displacing gensets with cleaner alternatives.• Chapter 5: Electricity for the End-Uses: Temporal Availability and the Viability of End-Use Electrification in Nigeria—examines how the timing and reliability of electricity supply constrain the adoption of electric cooking and vehicle charging in Nigeria. Using daily outage data from 50 feeders (2019–2024), it analyzes whether electricity is available during peak demand windows. Expert interviews complement the analysis, highlighting how affordability, politics, technical capacity, and cultural preferences interact with reliability to shape end-use feasibility. The findings show that unreliability limits usage at the point of need, but targeted strategies—such as fleet electrification or mini-grid EV pilots—may offer viable entry points.• Chapter 6: Electricity for the People: Diagnosing the Multi-Level Causes of Nigeria’s Grid Unreliability—investigates the root causes of electricity unreliability in Nigeria using feeder-level outage data and expert interviews. It introduces a six-level causal framework spanning proximate technical issues—such as load shedding, infrastructure failures, and planned maintenance—to deeper financial, institutional, and sociocultural drivers. The chapter offers a structured roadmap for understanding and addressing grid unreliability, arguing that durable solutions must be as multilayered as the problems themselves. Without coordinated, system-wide reform, emerging models of reliability based on ability to pay risk deepening energy inequality and entrenching a system where reliable supply exists only “for the rich.”• Chapter 7: Electricity for the Future: Confronting the Tensions of the Energy Transition in Nigeria—reflects on the core tension explored throughout the dissertation: the simultaneous pursuit of electrification for energy access and energy transition. Drawing on empirical insights and practitioner experience, it argues that while electricity unreliability remains a significant constraint, the deeper challenge lies in the lack of political will and implementation capacity. Nonetheless, Nigeria’s transition is already unfolding—albeit unevenly, and primarily for the wealthy. Therefore, this concluding chapter calls for honest reckoning and renewed commitment to a just, inclusive energy future.